Matter of Stats

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2022 - Round 23 Results - Quite the Round

All nine winners this week sat higher on the competition ladder than their opponents at the start of the round, which was, of course, excellent news for Consult The Ladder.

Eight of them were also early-week favourites, though, so scores were generally high for all the Head-to-Head Tipsters, Home Sweet Home aside.

MoSHBODS_Marg managed 8 from 9, which allowed it to assume outright 1st position again, now on 148.5 from 198 (75%), and one tip ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who scored only 7 from 9. Bookie Knows Best remains in outright 3rd on 141.5 from 198 (72%), one tip ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg and the RSMP twins.

The all-Tipster average came in at 7.1 from 9, lifting the all-Tipster all-season average to just over 70%.

The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) covered a range from Bookie_3’s 23.2 points per game to Bookie_9’s 29.6 points per game. MoSSBODS_Marg did slightly better than MoSHPlay_Marg and now leads by just over 9 points. MoSHBODS_Marg remains third, now another 22.5 points further back.

The only movement on the Leaderboard was, once again, in the last four positions, exactly reversing the moves from last week.

The all-Predictor average came in at 25.4 points per game, which kept the all-season all-Predictor average at about 24.6 points per game.

Log probability scores were all highly positive and fairly similar again this week, which left MoSSBODS_Prob in 1st, followed by MoSHBODS_Prob and then MoSHPlay_Prob.

WAGERING

It was another unprofitable week for Investors, partly due to the erroneous wagers on GWS and Essendon, but not at all solely due to that.

The overall round loss for the Combined Portfolio was 1.5c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 44c, that from a +40% ROT on a 1.11 turn.