Matter of Stats

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2022 - Round 15 Results - Almost Perfect

Six opening-market favourites won this week, but most of the MoS models knew better, in particular MoSHBODS_Marg, whose eight from nine performance was enough to see it kick two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, and now on 92 from 126 (73%). MoSSBODS_Marg sits in second place on 90 from 126 (71%), ahead of Bookie Knows Best on 88 from 126 (70%).

So prescient were the contrarian tips this week that the all-Tipster average came in at 6.9 from 9, elevating the all-Tipster all-season average to just over 68%.

Turning next to the Margin Predictors and their mean absolute errors (MAEs), we find the lowest belonging to MoSHBODS_Marg at 24.1 points per game, and the second- and third-best belonging to the other MoS family members. The worst MAE was Bookie_Hcap’s 26.4 points per game, which was enough to see it slump to 7th on the Leaderboard.

There were other moves further down, but the Top 3 remain unchanged as MoSHPlay_Marg, MoSSBODS_Marg, and then MoSHBODS_Marg.

The all-Predictor average came in at 25.5 points per game, which dropped the all-season all-Predictor average to 25.8 points per game.

Log probability scores were all positive yet again this week, but highest for MoSHBODS_Prob, MoSSBODS_Prob, and Bookie_LPSO. As a result, MoSHBODS_Prob sits in first place, MoSSBODS_Prob in second place, and MoSHPlay_Prob in third place.

If, at the start of the season, you’d told me that the MoS trio would, after 15 rounds, occupy the top two spots on Head-to-Head tipping, and the top three spots on MAE and LPS, I’d have called you a fantasist …

WAGERING

I’ve no time at all for notions about predestination or fate, but there are, nonetheless, weekends when you just feel that, regardless of the current game situation, things are more likely than not to turn around. This was one such weekend.

In the end, Investors enjoyed eight collects from 10 bets and profits for all three Funds.

The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 3.7c, which moved it to a season-long profit of just under 29c, that from a +39% ROT on a 0.74 turn.