Matter of Stats

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2020 - Round 17 Results - The Field Tightens

MoSHPlay_Marg tipped the winner in 6 of the 9 contests this week, which was enough to extend its lead on the Head-to-Head Tipsters’ Leaderboard to three tips over Bookie Knows Best, RSMP_Simple, and, now, MoSHBODS_Marg.

The all-Tipster average came in at 5.2 from 9, dragged down by Home Sweet Home’s 2 from 9, which saw it join Consult The Ladder in equal last place.

At the start of the round, first and last on the Margin Predictor Leaderboard were separated by about 111 points. That gap is now just 63 points after MoSHPlay_Marg turned in the round’s best Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 20.2 points per game, and Bookie_9 turned in the round’s worst MAE of 25.6 points per game.

That said, there was only one change in ranking on the Leaderboard, as MoSHBODS_Marg snatched eighth from MoSSBODS_Marg.

All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors returned positive log probability scores again this week, best amongst them MoSHBODS_Prob. Bookie_LPSO is the current leader, narrowly ahead of MoSHPlay_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob. That competition is far from over.

WAGERS

Another profit for Investors in Round 17, almost as good as the one from Round 16, has made it very unlikely that the Combined Portfolio will finish in red ink this season.

This week’s overall profit came from profits on all three underlying Funds which, in total, amounted to a 1.8c increase in the value of the Combined Portfolio. It now has a price of $1.115, this result coming from a 12.7% ROT on a 0.908 turn of the Portfolio Funds.