Matter of Stats

View Original

2019 - Round 16 Results - Lots of Sound and Fury, Signifying Something?

All of the Tipsters at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard tipped 5 from 9 winners this week, which left MoSHPlay_Marg as leader, now on 90 from 135 (67%), still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.

The round’s best mean absolute error (MAE) of 34.6 points per game belonged to MoSSBODS_Marg, just under 1 point per game ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 35.5 points per game and a slew of others, all under 36.5 points per game. Worst was C_Marg’s 38.2 points per game but, for all that, there were no movements on the Leaderboard.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all registered log probability scores around zero this week, best amongst them MoSSBODS_Prob, which kept it in first, and worst amongst them C_Prob, which kept it in last.

WAGERS

A third successive week of profit left Investors with a 13 and 3 round-by-round record and a net increase in original Funds of almost 20%.

All three Funds turned in profits for the second week in a row, the weighted sum of which lifted the Combined Portfolio’s price by 2.5c to $1.199, this result coming now from a 16.1% ROI on a 1.24 turn.