MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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This week, as well as the full Team Dashboard, which appears at the end of this blog, I've included a short-form version of it that includes only the teams' actual and Expected Wwins (based on their Scoring Shot data and the MoS Win Production Function), their ranking on Expected Wins, and their ranking on the various metrics that appear within the Dashboard.

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MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

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This week, time to review the correlation between team rankings on the various scoring metrics and their ordering on the competition ladder. We find that the Spearman rank correlation between ladder rankings and rankings on:

  • Scoring Shots Generated per Game is +0.87
  • Scoring Shots Conceded per Game is +0.85
  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.67
  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.41
  • Quarter 1 performances is +0.79
  • Quarter 2 performances is +0.77
  • Quarter 3 performances is +0.85
  • Quarter 4 performances is +0.89
  • Expected Wins (using the MoS Win Production Function) is +0.94

Clearly then, Scoring Shot production and concession matters more than Scoring Shot Conversion, and later Quarters matter slightly more than earlier ones.

Lastly, let's look at how the number of games actually won by each team compares to what we'd expect they might have won given their scoring statistics interpreted through the Win Production Function:

Teams that have won more games than we'd expect:

  • Hawthorn: +2.3 games
  • St Kilda: +1.8 games
  • Richmond: +1.6 games
  • Gold Coast: +1.0 games
  • Western Bulldogs: +1.0 games

Teams that have won fewer games than we'd expect:

  • Port Adelaide: -2.4 games
  • Fremantle: -2.2 games
  • GWS: -1.6 games
  • Melbourne: -1.4 games
  • West Coast: -1.4 games
  • Sydney: -1.1 games

MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 8

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All of the top 10 teams on the competition ladder now sport percentages greater than 100, and all but Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs have averaged more than 100 points per game.

Meantime six of the seven teams filling the bottom spots on the ladder have themselves conceded, on average, at least 100 points a game with Essendon, the lone exception, only falling five points short of joining the list.

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MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 7

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So, we're now 7 rounds into the competition. Time then to look at the MoS Team Dashboard and call out the major differences for every team between their ladder position and their ranking on the various metrics:

  • Adelaide: 8th on the ladder, but 4th on Own Scoring Shot production, 14th on Opponent Scoring Shot production, 3rd on Own Shot Scoring Conversion, 4th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 3rd on 2nd and 3rd Quarters
  • Brisbane Lions: 16th on the ladder, but 11th on Own Scoring Shot production
  • Carlton: 12th on the ladder, but 17th on Own Scoring Shot production and 6th on Opponent Scoring Shot production
  • Collingwood: 14th on the ladder, but 6th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion and 8th on 2nd Quarters
  • Essendon: 17th on the ladder, but 12th on Opponent Scoring Shot production and 10th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Fremantle: 18th on the ladder, but 13th on Own Scoring Shot production, 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, as well as 13th on 1st and 10th on 3rd Quarters
  • Geelong: 2nd on the ladder, but 9th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 7th on 3rd Quarters and 6th on 3rd Quarters
  • Gold Coast: 11th on the ladder, but 17th on Opponent Scoring Shot production, 6th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 7th on 2nd Quarters and 17th on 4th Quarters
  • GWS: 5th on the ladder, but 6th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 1st on 2nd Quarters and 9th on 4th Quarters
  • Hawthorn: 6th on the ladder, but 18th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 10th on 1st Quarters, 14th on 2nd Quarters, and 15th on 3rd Quarters
  • Kangaroos: 1st on the ladder, but 5th on Own Scoring Shot production, 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot production, 9th on 2nd Quarters, and 8th on 3rd Quarters
  • Melbourne: 9th on the ladder, but 1st on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 14th on 3rd Quarters, and 2nd on 4th Quarters
  • Richmond: 15th on the ladder, but ... well, not much different on any other metric
  • St Kilda: 13th on the ladder, but 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot production, 2nd on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 2nd on 3rd Quarters, and 18th on 4th Quarters
  • Sydney: 3rd on the ladder, but 8th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • West Coast: 7th on the ladder, but 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion
  • Western Bulldogs: 4th on the ladder, but 8th on Own Scoring Shot production, 14th on Own and on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 8th on 4th Quarters