This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn and Fremantle: roughly 70-75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. GWS: about 55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney and Carlton: about 10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: 1-<1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood & Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-55% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, and Fremantle: roughly 70-80% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and St Kilda: roughly 1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; over 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide: over 95% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: about 75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 3-7% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs and Adelaide: roughly 95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 6% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle: about 75% chance of being finalists; 12% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 50-55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Carlton: about 25-30% chances of being finalists; 1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney, and St Kilda: 5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

9. Port Adelaide: 2% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier