This blog post has been removed as it used incorrect initial team ratings (I applied the regression to the mean TWICE).

A corrected version will be posted in the next 24-48 hours.

On balance, the semi-final results served to bolster the Cats’ chances at the expense of the Swans’, although, between them they all but have the Flag wrapped up according to the latest simulation results.

Just six games now to simulate for games played over a three-week period, with Sydney now guaranteed a home Preliminary Final against an interstate team, and Geelong only enjoying that same benefit if the Lions spring the upset this week and defeat the Dees. That has quite a dramatic impact on the simulation results, as we’ll see.

With the benefit of some time for review, I discovered that my simulation code has been, among other things, calculating Venue Performance Values in what can only be described as an unexpected manner. The same issue affected both my Standard and my Alternative approaches and has been corrected for this week’s version.

With just the one home and away round remaining, time for a look at the latest set of simulations for the 2022 Finals.

The Standard and Heretical simulations are now just conditional probability calculations, and they reveal the following:

1. Geelong: Minor Premiers

2. Sydney: 85% chances for Top 4

3. Collingwood, Melbourne, and Brisbane Lions: 55-60% chances for Top 4

4. Fremantle: 40-50% chances for Top 4

5. Richmond: Play Finals

6. Carlton: 70% chances of playing Finals

7. Western Bulldogs: 30% chances of playing Finals

8. St Kilda: huge longshot to play Finals

Time for a look at the latest set of simulations for the 2022 Finals.

At this point in the season, simulations are essentially simple mathematics, but let’s see what that mathematics reveals for one last time this season.

The latest Standard and Heretical simulations suggest the following:

1. Geelong: virtually assured of the Minor Premiership

2. Collingwood and Sydney: 70-75% chances for Top 4

3. Melbourne: 60% chances for Top 4

4. Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 45-50% chances for Top 4

5. Richmond: 85% chances of playing Finals

6. Carlton: 80% chances of playing Finals

7. St Kilda and Western Bulldogs: 15-20% chances of playing Finals

Time to take a look at the latest set of simulations for the 2022 Finals, which begin in exactly one month’s time.

This will probably be the second-last time I do these simulations for the men’s competition in 2022, because home-and-away ladder simulations are generally fairly boring with just a single round to play

These latest ones - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Geelong: assured of a Top 8 finish and almost certainly a Top 4 finish, and about 90% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Melbourne and Sydney: assured of a Top 8 finish, 85-90% chances for Top 4, and around 2-8% chances for the Minor Premiership (higher for Melbourne)

3. Collingwood and Brisbane Lions: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 45-50% chances for Top 4, and longshots for the Minor Premiership

4. Fremantle: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish and about 25% chances for Top 4

5. Carlton: 80-85% chance of playing Finals and around 4-5% chance of a Top 4 finish

6. Western Bulldogs: 50-60% chances of playing Finals

7. St Kilda and Richmond: around 30-35% chance of playing Finals

8. Gold Coast and Port Adelaide: longshots to play Finals

9. Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks

With just a month’s worth of football to go now until the Finals, let’s take a look at the latest set of simulations for those Finals.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Geelong: assured of a Top 8 finish, assured of a Top 4 finish, and 80-85% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Melbourne, Brisbane Lions, and Sydney: assured of a Top 8 finish, 60-70% chances for Top 4, and around 2-6% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Fremantle: assured of a Top 8 finish, 50-55% chances for Top 4, and around 2-3% chances for the Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 30-35% chances for Top 4, and longshots for the Minor Premiership

5. Carlton: 90-95% chance of playing Finals, around 15% chance of a Top 4 finish, and extreme longshots for the Minor Premiership

6. Western Bulldogs: 55-60% chances of playing Finals and extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. St Kilda and Richmond: 20-25% chance of playing Finals

8. Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: 3-4% chance of playing Finals

9. Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks (with North Melbourne still favourites for the Spoon, and Hawthorn still mathematical chances of playing Finals)

With just five rounds to go now until the Finals, let’s take a look at the latest set of simulations for those Finals.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Geelong: assured of a Top 8 finish, virtually assured of a Top 4 finish, and 60-70% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Melbourne: assured of a Top 8 finish, 80-85% chances for Top 4, and around 20% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle and Sydney: assured of a Top 8 finish, 55-75% chances for Top 4, and around 3-5% chances for the Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 20-30% chances for Top 4, and longshots for the Minor Premiership

5. Carlton: 85-90% chance of playing Finals, around 15% chance of a Top 4 finish, and extreme longshots for the Minor Premiership

6. Richmond and Western Bulldogs: 35-45% chances of playing Finals and longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: 10-20% chance of playing Finals

8. Essendon, Hawthorn, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks (with North Melbourne still favourites for the Spoon, and Essendon and Hawthorn still mathematical chances of playing Finals)

And now for this week’s look at Finals simulations.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 90-95% chances for Top 4, and 50-55% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Melbourne and Fremantle: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 70-80% chances for Top 4, and around 15-20% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Brisbane Lions and Sydney: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 45-55% chances for Top 4, and around 3-5% chances for the Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood and Carlton: 80-90% chance of playing Finals, 20-30% chance of a Top 4 finish, 1-3% for the Minor Premiership

5. Richmond: 65% chance of playing Finals, 8-10% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for the Minor Premiership

6. St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 20-25% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

8. Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide, GWS, West Coast, and North Melbourne: looking to 2023 and draft picks (with North Melbourne the favourites for the Spoon)

Time to take another look at Finals simulations.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 85% chances for Top 4, and 40% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Brisbane Lions and Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 70-80% chances for Top 4, and around 15-30% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Fremantle: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 50% chances for Top 4, and around 7-8% chances for the Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood, Carlton, Sydney, and Richmond: 65-85% chance of playing Finals, 15-35% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for the Minor Premiership

5. St Kilda and Western Bulldogs: 40-45% chance of playing Finals, 5-6% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Gold Coast and Port Adelaide: 10-25% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Adelaide, Hawthorn, GWS, and Essendon: ultra extreme longshots to play Finals

8. West Coast: very likely to finish 17th

9. North Melbourne: very likely to claim the Spoon

One of the challenges in running cold simulations (ie those where the underlying team ratings and Venue Performance Values don’t change within a simulation replicate based on simulated results) is capturing the inherently increasing uncertainty about team ratings in future games.

We could ignore it entirely or, instead, attempt to incorporate the time-varying nature of that uncertainty in some way. I have chosen to follow the latter course in both my home and away simulations and my finals simulations. (For details about the methodology, see this blog post.)

Specifically, I’ve assumed that the standard deviation of teams’ offensive and defensive ratings is equal to 4.5 times the square root of the time between their latest rating and the date of the match in question, measured in days. This results in some quite large standard deviations for moderately distant games.

Applying that methodology to 10,000 of the 50,000 home and away season simulation replicates yields the following chart showing teams’ Finals fate overall and as a function of their ultimate ladder position at the end of the home and away season.

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 80% chances for Top 4, and 40% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Geelong and Brisbane Lions: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 55-70% chances for Top 4, and around 15-20% chances for the Minor Premiership

3. Fremantle, Carlton, and Sydney: 75-90% chance of playing Finals, 30-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-9% chances for Minor Premiership

4. Collingwood, Richmond, and Western Bulldogs: 50-70% chance of playing Finals, 10-25% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

5. St Kilda and Gold Coast: 25-40% chance of playing Finals, 3-6% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Port Adelaide: 12-13% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Adelaide, Hawthorn, GWS, and Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

8. West Coast and North Melbourne: likely to fight for the Spoon