2025 : Simulating the Finals After R24.1

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FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

MoSHBODS now has the following opinions about the Finals

Flag favouritism is then, currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • Geelong (about $2.65)

  • Adelaide (about $5)

  • Collingwood (about $6.25)

  • Brisbane Lions (about $6.70)

  • Gold Coast (about $16.70)

We can break down those numbers for each team now into which team they lose to in order to bow out in a particular week of the Finals.

Lastly, we can also take a look at likely Grand Final pairings and who fares best in each pairing.

The most common pairings are

  • Geelong / Adelaide, which accounts for about 23% of all Grand Finals. Geelong wins about 66% of those.

  • Geelong / Brisbane Lions: about 18% of GFs, Geelong wins about 65%

  • Collingwood / Adelaide: about 13% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 55%

  • Geelong / Collingwood: about 12% of GFs, Geelong wins about 64%

  • Brisbane Lions / Adelaide: about 9% of GFs, Brisbane Lions wins just over half

  • Collingwood / Brisbane Lions: about 5% of GFs, Collingwood wins about 54%

LIKELIHOOD OF AN ALL NON-VICTORIAN TEAM gRAND fINAL

After last week’s results, which meant that the Suns entered the Finals at the expense of the Dogs, there was an increase in the probability that the Grand Final will involve two non-Victorian teams this year.

The new numbers suggest that there’s now only about a 1-in-8 chance that both of the Grand Finalists will be from Victoria, but about another near 3-in-4 chance that just one of the Grand Finalists will be a Victorian team.

That leaves about 1-in-8 Grand Finals where there is no Victorian representation. If there is to be no Victorian team involvement, by far the most likely State matchup is Queensland v South Australia.

2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R24

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With just a single home and away game yet to play, the only interest is in estimating:

  1. The probability that Gold Coast defeat Essendon and thereby claim a spot in the Finals at the expense of Western Bulldogs

  2. The probability that they do so by a sufficiently wide margin to have them finishing above Hawthorn

To finish above Hawthorn:

  • If Gold Coast scores 80 points, they need to win by 26 points or more

  • If Gold Coast scores 100 points, they need to win by 29 points or more

  • If Gold Coast scores 120 points, they need to win by 32 points or more

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R23

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This year’s post Round 23 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: certain or near-certain of being finalists; 50-65% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Hawthorn and GWS: certain of being finalists; 10-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle: around 15% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, St Kilda, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R22

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This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast: certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Collingwood: certain of being finalists; around 45% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, and Hawthorn: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; 15-30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: around 75% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Western Bulldogs: about 85% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R21

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This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: certain of being finalists; around 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 7% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 65-70% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: around 98% chance of being finalists; 55% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, GWS, and Western Bulldogs: around 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 1-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Hawthorn: about 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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