This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; over 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Adelaide: over 95% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: about 75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 3-7% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs and Adelaide: roughly 95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 6% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle: about 75% chance of being finalists; 12% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 50-55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Carlton: about 25-30% chances of being finalists; 1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney, and St Kilda: 5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

9. Port Adelaide: 2% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

10. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong and Gold Coast: 93-99% chance of being finalists; 60-80% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs: 95% chance of being finalists; 65% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle: about 50-65% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne: 10-25% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Essendon, Port Adelaide: 2-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions: about 70-85% chance of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS, Fremantle, Carlton. Sydney: about 40% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda, Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide: 3-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: over 95% chance of being finalists; 80% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide: 80-90% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 7-13% chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS: about 65% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Carlton: about 45% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. Sydney: about 25% chance of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 75% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Hawthorn, Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; 35-40% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast: about 70% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. GWS, Carlton: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. Sydney: about 35% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1-1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier