2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R20

This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: around 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Brisbane Lions: around 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: around 90% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 2-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R19

This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood and Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90-95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; around 70% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 75-85% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney: roughly 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R18

This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 75% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-5% chances of Top 4; 3-7% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs: about 90% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 75-80% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle: roughly 60% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R17

This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 98% chances of Top 4; roughly 75% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 95% chance of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn: about 85% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Fremantle: roughly 55-65% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney: roughly 5% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R16

This year’s post Round 16 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 65% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 2-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast and Hawthorn: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 20-30% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle: roughly 70% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: 2-7% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R15

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: about 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 85% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn and Fremantle: roughly 70-75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS: about 55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney and Carlton: about 10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast: 1-<1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R14

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood & Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-55% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, and Fremantle: roughly 70-80% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS: about 50% chance of being finalists; 4% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, and St Kilda: roughly 1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R13

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; over 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide: over 95% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: roughly 90-95% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle and Hawthorn: about 75% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Carlton: about 30% chance of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 3-7% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R12

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; roughly 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Western Bulldogs and Adelaide: roughly 95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 6-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast: about 90% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 6% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle: about 75% chance of being finalists; 12% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Hawthorn: about 50-55% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Carlton: about 25-30% chances of being finalists; 1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, Essendon, Sydney, and St Kilda: 5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Port Adelaide: 2% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R11

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong and Gold Coast: 93-99% chance of being finalists; 60-80% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Western Bulldogs: 95% chance of being finalists; 65% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Brisbane Lions and Adelaide: about 85-90% chance of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle: about 50-65% chance of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Carlton, Sydney, Melbourne: 10-25% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Essendon, Port Adelaide: 2-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R10

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: 99% chance of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast: 90-95% chance of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions: about 70-85% chance of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS, Fremantle, Carlton. Sydney: about 40% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  5. St Kilda, Essendon, Melbourne, Port Adelaide: 3-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R9

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: over 95% chance of being finalists; 80% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Gold Coast, Adelaide: 80-90% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 7-13% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. GWS: about 65% chance of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton: about 45% chance of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 25% chance of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-15% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R8

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 75% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 55-65% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; 35-40% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Gold Coast: about 70% chance of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. GWS, Carlton: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  6. Sydney: about 35% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 10-20% chances of being finalists; 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1-1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R7

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood: about 95% chance of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 45% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, Geelong: about 85% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Gold Coast: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. GWS, Adelaide, Carlton: about 60% chances of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Fremantle: about 40% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Port Adelaide, Sydney: about 25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Essendon: about 10% chances of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R6

This year’s post Round 6 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Collingwood, Geelong: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; 65-80% chances of Top 4; 20-40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Adelaide: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 6-9% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 35-45% chances of being finalists; 9-13% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. St Kilda, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Richmond, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast: <1% to 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R5

This year’s post Round 5 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-55% chances of Top 4; 15-20% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Gold Coast, GWS: about 75% chance of being finalists; 40-45% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide: about 60% chance of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Sydney, St Kilda: about 40-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon: about 15-25% chances of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R4

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn: about 90% chance of being finalists; 70% chances of Top 4; 30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Geelong: about 70-80% chance of being finalists; 40-50% chances of Top 4; 8-16% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. GWS, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda: about 55-65% chances of being finalists; 20-30% chances of Top 4; 3-6% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle: about 35% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon: about 15-20% chances of being finalists; 2-4% chances of Top 4; less than 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: about <1-2% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R3

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide: about 80-90% chance of being finalists; 50-70% chances of Top 4; 15-30% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Collingwood, GWS: about 60-75% chances of being finalists; 25-40% chances of Top 4; 4-9% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Sydney, St Kilda: about 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle, Carlton, Port Adelaide: about 30-35% chances of being finalists; 7-10% chances of Top 4; 1% or less chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon: about 15% chances of being finalists; 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. North Melbourne, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast: about <1-5% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R2

This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Hawthorn, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Geelong: about 75-90% chance of being finalists; 40-65% chances of Top 4; 10-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Collingwood, GWS, Western Bulldogs: about 65-70% chances of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 7-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide: about 40-55% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Carlton, St Kilda, Fremantle: about 30-35% chances of being finalists; 8-11% chances of Top 4; 1% or less chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond: about 5-15% chances of being finalists; <1 to 2% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast: about 1% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R1

This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Geelong: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; 50-65% chances of Top 4; 15-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Western Bulldogs, GWS: about 70-75% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 7-11% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast: about 55-60% chances of being finalists; 25-30% chances of Top 4; 4-6% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney, Carlton, Fremantle, Port Adelaide: about 30-40% chances of being finalists; 10-13% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda: about 20-30% chances of being finalists; 6-8% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast: about <1-10% chances of being finalists; <1-2% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

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