2025 : Simulating the Final Ladder After R20
/This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Adelaide: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 30% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; roughly 4% chances of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast: around 95% chance of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions: around 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 40% chances of Top 4; roughly 3% chances of being Minor Premier
GWS: around 90% chance of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Western Bulldogs: about 70-75% chance of being finalists; 2-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Sydney, Port Adelaide, Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; <1% chance of Top 4; <1% chance of being Minor Premier