Today we’ll be analysing the latest player-by-player data from the fabulous OneQuestionShootout website, and investigating a single issue: how well can we predict a contestant’s chances of getting back to the desk based solely on the Cash Builder amount that he or she recorded?

There are two fundamentally different ways of simulating the remainder of a sporting competition, which are loosely referred to as ‘cold’ and ‘hot’ simulations. The difference between them comes down to the assumptions made about the dynamics of the abilities of the teams involved. In cold simulations, teams’ assumed abilities are unrelated to the simulated results of earlier games, while in hot simulations they are related to earlier results.

(I’ve found surprisingly scant writing about this topic in academic journals or elsewhere. Please let me know if you come across anything.)