AFLW 2025 - Round 13 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 10:35AM SUNDAY

Sportsbet has now posted markets for the two games today, including a line of 81.5 for the Adelaide v St Kilda game. WoSHBODS has therefore topped up its unders wager by now adding:

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: 0.6% u81.5 @ $1.85

The forecast rain is keeping us out of the market in the Melbourne v Brisbane game.

UpDATE 3PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: 0.2% u79.5 @ $1.87

It passed on overs bets on North Melbourne v Hawthorn yesterday, and Carlton v West Coast today because of forecast rain. Currently, the line for the latter game is 52.5 points, which represents an estimated overlay of 27 points according to WoSHBODS’ number. That would have justified an 8% wager. I can only assume that it is - and probably has been - raining heavily in Melbourne.

Note that Sportsbet has no Totals markets up for today’s or tomorrow’s games, and TAB has none up for Melbourne v Brisbane tomorrow.

AFLW 2025 - Round 13 - Week 1 of the Finals

/

According to the bookmakers, the first week of the AFLW Finals comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • One game expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by about six-and-a-half goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the four games of the round, which sees three favourites winning, all of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The one forecast underdog winner is Melbourne (over Brisbane) and they are forecast to win by less than a point.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 16.8 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 20.4 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 12

/

This year’s post Round 12 simulations of the Finals are summarised below.

North Melbourne remain prohibitive favourites at unprecedented levels, with Brisbane the only other team with a double-digit probability of winning the Grand Final.

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 12 Results - The Right Kind of Rollercoaster

/

WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, as did both bookmakers, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 77 from 108 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 22.8 points per game (compared to 22.6 and 22.7 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 21.7 points per game (compared to 18.9 and 18.8 for the two bookmakers).

The LPS of +0.3 bits compares to 0 and -0.13 bits for the two bookmakers.

It’s been a very good season for WoSHBODS, whose cumulative season-long results appear below.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 12 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 12 NOON SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • St Kilda v Western Bulldogs: 1.9% u79.5 @ $1.85

(It passed on an Adelaide v Fremantle overs bets because of forecast rain)

UpDATE 1:25PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Richmond v Gold Coast: 1.9% o87.5 @ $1.85

(It passed on GWS v Port Adelaide and Sydney v Essendon overs bets because of forecast rain)

UpDATE 1:25PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • West Coast v Carlton: 1.2% o78.5 @ $1.85 (the forecast is for “showers developing”, but the expected rainfall seems to be quite low)

AFLW 2025 - Round 12

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 12 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Two games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just over three goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between about four-and-a-half and just over five goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees seven of nine favourites winning, six of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The two forecast underdog winners are Western Bulldogs (again) and West Coast

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 18.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 21.4 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 11

/

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams - in terms of their home and away season finishes - can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain Minor Premiers

  2. Hawthorn, Brisbane and Melbourne: certain of being finalists

  3. Carlton: 95% chance of finals

  4. St Kilda: 85% chance of finals

  5. Sydney: 75% chance of finals

  6. West Coast: 60% chance of finals

  7. Adelaide: 50% chance of finals

  8. Fremantle: 30% chance of finals

  9. Port Adelaide, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: No chance of finals (Port Adelaide and Geelong are mathematical chances, but Port Adelaide finished 8th in just 3 simulation replicates, and Geelong in none)

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 11 Results - Consolidation

/

WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, while both bookmakers tipped 8, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 71 from 99 (72%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 12.7 points per game (compared to 12.5 and 12.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 12.6 points per game (compared to 11.9 and 11.8 for the bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.7 bits compares to +3.1 bits for the two bookmakers.

WoSHBODS continues to please.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 11 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 10:30AM sUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • North Melbourne v St Kilda: 2.8% u88.5 @ $1.87

  • Gold Coast v Collingwood: 2.1% o79.5 @ $1.87 (the forecast here is “Shower or two. Possible storm” but the rain radar is clear so we’ve taken a chance)

We’ve passed on overs wagers in the Western Bulldogs v Geelong and on the Carlton v GWS game based on the forecasts of “Rain. Storm developing” and the current radar pictures on the BOM site.

UpDATE 10:45AM saturDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Brisbane v Melbourne: 0.6% o86.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 2PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Adelaide v Port Adelaide: 1% o88.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2025 - Round 11

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 11 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Five games expected to be decided by less than two goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just over four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees eight of nine favourites winning, four of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers. The sole forecast underdog winner is Western Bulldogs, narrowly, over Geelong.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 15 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 17 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 10

/

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-95% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. St Kilda, Carlton, Adelaide, and West Coast: about 80-90% chances of being finalists; around 2-5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 45% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle: around 15% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs: around 1-4% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Geelong Essendon, Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 10 Results - Bliss

/

WoSHBODS tipped 6 from 9 winners this week, as did bpth bookmakers, which took WoSHBODS’ season-long record to 64 from 81 (71%).

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 19.3 points per game (compared to 26.2 and 26.4 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 15.6 points per game (compared to 15.1 for both bookmakers).

The LPS of +3.5 bits compares to +1.4 and +1.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

Very pleasing again.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Round 10 - Unders/Overs

/

UpDATE 12:20PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v Brisbane: 0.9% u87.5 @ $1.87

  • Collingwood v Richmond: 0.2% o78.5 @ $1.87

  • Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs: 0.2% u87.5 @ $1.85

UpDATE 11:45AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Melbourne v Sydney: 0.4% o89.5 @ $1.85

  • North Melbourne v Adelaide: 1.9% u89.5 @ $1.85

  • GWS v Fremantle: 1.4% u84.5 @ $1.90

  • Carlton v St Kilda: 0.2% u81.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 3:30PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Port Adelaide v Hawthorn: 1% o83.5 @ $1.87

  • West Coast v Geelong: 0.9% u87.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2025 - Round 10

/

According to the bookmakers, Round 9 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than or about two goals

  • Three games expected to be decided by between two and just over three goals

  • Two game expected to be decided by about four-and-a-half to five goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which sees all nine favourites winning, six of them by a larger margin than forecast by the bookmakers.

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is about 15.5 points per game, while WoSHBODS’ is about 21 points per game.

Read More

AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 9

/

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; virtually certain of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85-90% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton : about 95% chances of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 85% chances of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Sydney: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. St Kilda and West Coast: about 45-50% chance of being finalists; around 1% to <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Fremantle, Geelong, and Collingwood: around 15-20% chances of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Western Bulldogs: about 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Essendon, Port Adelaide, Richmond, GWS, and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

Read More