As we approach the final round of the home and away season, we look back on what I think is clearly WoSHBODS’ best season by some distance, especially in terms of its ability to predict margins. This week it is tipping five home teams and four away teams to win, all of them favourites, and with the following distribution:

• Under 2 goals: 2 games

• From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

• Over 4 goals: 3 games

Based on its own probability estimates, it should expect to tip 7.1 winners this week, and the likelihood of it tipping all 9 is about 11%.

WoSHBODS Wagering

WoSHBODS has head-to-head wagers in five of the nine games, although two of those wages are for 0.3% or less of the Head-to-Head Fund or less. Three of the five bets are on underdogs at prices ranging from $3.30 to $8.50, and the remaining bets are at $1.08 and $1.51.

There are also seven line wagers ranging in size from 0.8% to 4.9%, with the largest 4.9% on GWS.

(Note that we also have a Goldilocks situation in Melbourne v Collingwood where only a Melbourne win by 1 to 32 points will secure both the head-to-head bet on Melbourne and the line bet on Collingwood).

Altogther, just under 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund is at risk, and just under 16% of the original Line Fund, which means that about 11% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 12 wagers. A best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 13c.