2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 8
/This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
Geelong and Sydney: 95%+ chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 25-35% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 50-60% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton and Collingwood: 65-70% chances of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 3% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, and Brisbane Lions: 50-55% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and St Kilda: 15-30% chance of being finalists; 2-5% chance of Top 4; very small chance of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, West Coast and Richmond: 1-4% chances of being finalists; none to very small chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier
North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier