2023 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 16
/The latest simulations suggest that there are still nine teams with a 1-in-2 or better chance of playing Finals, seven teams with about a 1-in-10 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-8 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.
Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:
Port Adelaide and Collingwood: almost certain of being finalists; 98% chance of finishing Top 4; and 40 to 45% chance of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions: almost certain of being finalists; 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 10 to 15% chance of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: about 95% of being finalists; 55 to 60% chance of finishing Top 4; but virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs: 80% of being finalists; 20% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, and Essendon: about 50 to 60% chance of being finalists; about 6 to 11% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
Sydney, Richmond, and Carlton: about 20 to 30% chance of being finalists; about 1 to 2% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, GWS, and Gold Coast: about 10% chance of being a finalist; virtually no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier