2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 4

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This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Melbourne and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 55-70% chances of Top 4; 20-25% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Carlton, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney, and Fremantle: 65-80% chances of being finalists; 30-50% chances of Top 4; 5% to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Brisbane Lions, St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast: 35-50% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: 20% chance of being finalists; 3.5% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon, Richmond, and Hawthorn: 8-12% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; virtually no chances of being Minor Premier

  6. North Melbourne and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

Adealide’s, Fremantle’s, and Western Bulldogs’ Finals chances fell most substantially this week, while Brisbane Lions’ and Carlton’s rose most substantially.

There are still eight teams with about a 50% or higher chance of playing Finals, and 12 with about a 7-in-20 chance or higher. There are also seven teams with a 30% or higher chance of finishing Top 4, and five with a 10% or better chance of taking the Minor Premiership.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Overall ladder uncertainty decreased considerably this week for ladder positions and teams across the board, with the majority of teams now effectively fighting for between 11 and 15 ladder positions, and most ladder positions having 11 to 15 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are West Coast, North Melbourne, Melbourne, and GWS, while on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, 2nd, 16th, 17th, and 18th.

Tthe ladder positions with the most uncertainty are those in the middle of the table, from about 4th to 14th.

We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 11.2 positions, and the average ladder position has about 11.3 teams competing for it. Both of these metrics are down by over 1 this week.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 26% had 12 wins, 40% had 13 wins, and 8% had 12.5 wins (also, 3.5% had 11 wins, and 11% had 13 wins). Those suggest that the team finishing 8th is now slightly more likely to have recorded 13 wins or more

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 30% had 15 wins, 34% had 16 wins, and 7% had 15.5 wins (also, 6.5% had 14 wins, and 3% had 14.5 wins).Those suggest that the team finishing 4th is now slightly more likely to have recorded 16 wins or more.

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 3.5% made Finals

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 29% made Finals (down 3%)

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 76% made Finals (down 3%)

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 98% made Finals and 6% finished Top 4

  • For teams finishing win 15 wins: 37% finished Top 4

  • For teams finishing win 16 wins: 80% finished Top 4

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis:

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s just under a 3-in-8 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s still about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages

FINALS CHANCES

Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities