2020 - Round 21 Results - A Grand Finale
/MoSHPlay_Marg did enough to secure the Head-to-Head Tipster title this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg assured itself of at least a share of 2nd, with RSMP_Simple the only other Tipster with a chance to tie for that spot.
The all-Tipster average for the week was just 0.7 from 2, with 5 of the 9 Tipsters recording zeroes.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we have the extraordinary situation that, after 161 games, 1st is separated from 9th by less than 28 points, and 1st from 4th by less than 8 points. Bookie_9 remains top, but is now less than a point clear of RSMP_Simple.
MoSSPlay_Marg, recorded the round’s best mean absolute error (MAE) of 20.8 points per game, which saw it climb three places into 6th outright.
MoSHPlay_Prob returned only the third highest log probability score this week, but still sits in 1st place on the Leaderboard ahead of MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_LPSO. All six forecasters returned negative scores.
With only one game to play, MoSHPlay_Prob is, effectively, uncatchable unless it provides a very low probability estimate (say under 20%) for the eventual winner, which would give Bookie_LPSO and MoSSBODS_Prob a shot at overhauling it with even a 60% or 65% estimate.
WAGERS
One bet, one loss for Investors this weekend.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio fell in value by 0.7c. It now has a price of $1.158, this result coming from a 15.2% ROT on a 1.041 turn of the Portfolio Funds.
