Inferring 2015 Grand Final Prices
/This time of year it's always fun to consider what the current wagering markets imply about the likely Grand Final prices.
Read MoreThis time of year it's always fun to consider what the current wagering markets imply about the likely Grand Final prices.
Read MoreRecently, in light of the discussions about the validity of the season simulations written up over on the Simulations journal, I got to thinking about modelling the Bookmaker's price-setting behaviour and how it might be expected to respond to the outcomes of earlier games in the season. It's a topic I've investigated before, but not for a while.
Read MoreI'm a sucker for a colourful chart, and today's is based on simulations using an earlier model of Home and Away team scoring, constrained by bookmaker-based empirical realities.
Read MoreIn the comments section of the previous blog, LT pointed out that Bookmakers seem to be doing a better job this year predicting the sum of the Home Team and Away Team scores than predicting the difference between them.
Read MoreI've raised an eyebrow or two more than once when I've seen the TAB bookmaker post two markets with the same head-to-head prices but different line market handicaps priced at even-money.
Read MoreI was updating the MAFL Fund Performance page last evening and found myself pondering the topic of bookmaker overround.
Read MoreIn a recent blog I developed an empirical model of AFL scoring in which I assumed that the Scoring Shots generated by Home and Away teams could be modelled by a bivariate Negative Binomial and that the conversion of these shots into Goals could be modelled by Beta Binomials.
Read MoreEach week the TAB Bookmaker forms opinions about the likely outcome of upcoming AFL matches and conveys those opinions to bettors in the form of market prices. If we assume that these opinions are unbiased reflections of the true likely outcomes, how might the competition ladder have differed from what we have now?
Read MoreIn a previous post I discussed the possibility of modelling AFL team scores as Weibull distributions, finding that there was no compelling empirical or other reason to discount the idea and promising to conduct further analyses to more directly assess the Weibull distribution's suitability for the task.
Read MoreIn this blog I'm seeking to answer a single question: how are a team's subsequent head-to-head bookmaker prices affected by the returns they've provided to head-to-head wagering on them in recent weeks? More succinctly, how much less can you expect to make wagering on recent winners and how much more on recent losers?
Read MoreThe last few months have been a generally reflective time for me, and with my decision to leave unchanged the core of MAFL algorithms for 2014 I've been focussing some of that reflection on the eight full seasons I've now spent analysing and predicting AFL results.
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