Matter of Stats

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2013 : MARS, Massey, Colley and ODM Ratings After Round 17

As topsy-turvy as the weekend's results were, only five team's MARS Ranking changed, three of them by only a single place.

The big movers were Richmond, who climbed three spots into 5th on the back of their 27-point win over Freo, and Collingwood, who fell two places into 7th after succumbing to the lowly, if rising Suns. Other teams to move were Sydney, who nudged Geelong into 3rd, and the Roos, who slipped into 8th.

Eleven teams still have Ratings above 1,000.

Over the five most-recent rounds, each of the teams currently ranked in the top 8 positions have, net, accumulated Ratings Points (RPs), while only two teams amongst the bottom 10, Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions, have done the same. Amongst the eight remaining teams, all of which have shed RPs over this period, Adelaide, despite their most recent triumph over the Cats, have been most generous, donating almost 9 RPs to their opponents. The Giants, Dogs and Saints over the same period have been only a little less profligate.

These moves leave Essendon, the Roos, Port Adelaide and St Kilda as the only teams whose MARS Ranking differs by three places or more from their competition ladder position. To labour the point a little, it's the Roos who now find themselves ranked by MARS far more highly than they find themselves ranked on the competition ladder (and there are no prizes for guessing on which ladder they'd prefer to occupy a higher rung).

Of the five teams that the Colley System rated most differently from its MAFL peers at the end of Round 16, only the Roos remain as a team that Colley still feels very differently about. Its opinion of the Lions, Power, Saints and Swans is now at least somewhat more in keeping with the opinions of the other MAFL Rating Systems.

Considered alone, ODM has not much changed its opinions based on the most recent evidence. It does though now think a little less of Freo's and a little more of Richmond's Offensive capabilities, and a little less of Geelong's, Hawthorn's, Port Adelaide's and West Coast's Defensive capabilities.

On balance though, for most teams, it has a similar opinion of their Offensive, Defensive and, thus, Overall rankings.

Turning next to the predictive accuracy of the various Ranking Systems we find that MARS still reigns supreme.

Based on this chart, it might be a bit difficult to determine whether MARS' lead over its rivals has grown, shrunk or stayed the same across the course of the seaons. To help show this, I've created the following chart, which depicts the various lead or deficit that each Rating System has enjoyed relative to MARS during the season so far.

From this you can see that MARS leads Massey now by 3 tips (a season high), ODM by 6 tips (also a season high), and Colley by 10 tips. It also leads predictions based solely on ODM's Offensive Rankings by 7 tips, and based solely on ODM's Defensive Rankings by 9 tips.

Lastly, here's the chart of each team's season-long MARS Ratings.