The final table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

There are a number of metrics on which some teams higher on the ladder do surprisingly poorly, and others on which some teams lower on the ladder do surprisingly well, but we’ve covered a number of examples of these in recent weeks, so I’ll leave it to the reader to undertake a final review of these for themselves.

This week, we’ll have one final look at the MoS Win Production Function and what it suggests about how many more or fewer wins teams have recorded relative to what their scoring metrics would suggest they might reasonably have been expected to.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below, one striking feature of which is the contrast between the rankings on metrics for the teams from 1st to 6th on the ladder with those for the teams from 7th and 8th - Essendon and the Western Bulldogs.

• Essendon is no higher than 4th on any metric, and is 10th or worse on 10 of the 14 metrics.

• The Western Bulldogs are 4th or better on only two metrics, and 10th or worse on eight metrics.

• Hawthorn, in contrast, who currently sit 9th on the ladder, are ranked 5th or higher on six metrics, and 10th or worse on only six metrics. They are also 7th on Expected Wins, while the Western Bulldogs are 8th, and Essendon 12th.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

This week, let’s focus on the current Top 8 teams on the competition ladder, for which we note that:

• Geelong are ranked no lower than 4th on any Dashboard metric

• Brisbane Lions are only 7th on Opponent Scoring Shots, 11th on Own Conversion, 8th on Opponent Conversion, 9th on Goals Conceded, and 10th on Points Conceded

• West Coast are only 9th on Scoring Shot Production, 11th on Opponent Scoring Shot Production, and 13th on Q2 performances

• Richmond are 15th on Opponent Conversion, 10th on Goals Conceded, 9th on Points Conceded, and 12th on Q4 performances

• Collingwood are 9th on Opponent Conversion, 14th on Q2 performances, and 11th on Q3 performances

• GWS are 13th on Opponent Conversion, and 11th on Q1 performances

• Essendon are 13th on Scoring Shot Production, 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Production, 11th on Goals and Points Scored, 12th on Goals and Points Conceded, 17th on Q1 performances, 11th on Q2 and Q4 performance, 10th on Q3 performances, 13th on Quarters won, and 12th on Expected Wins according to the MoS Win Production Function

• Port Adelaide are 13th on Own Conversion, 10th on Opponent Conversion, and 14th on Q1 performances.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

While there’s still a very high correlation between the teams’ ladder positions and their ordering based on Expected Wins according to the MoS Win Production Function half of the teams find themselves with at least one or more wins or losses greater than their scoring statistics would suggest, namely:

• Sydney (2.6 fewer wins)

• Port Adelaide (1.3 fewer wins)

• Carlton and Hawthorn (1.2 fewer wins)

• Adelaide (1.1 fewer wins)

• North Melbourne (1.0 fewer wins)

• St Kilda (1.9 fewer losses)

• Richmond (1.8 fewer losses)

• Brisbane Lions (1.7 fewer losses)

• Essendon and West Coast (1.3 fewer losses)

In terms of ladder positions, however, it’s the Western Bulldogs who find themselves highest on the ladder relative to their Expected Win count. They’re in 10th on the ladder but are ranked only 14th on Expected Wins.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

It shows that, as interesting as the 2019 season might be, we have to be honest and recognise that most of the teams currently in the Top 8 have flaws, some of which can be summarised by:

• West Coast’s 10th on Scoring Shot creation, 12th on Scoring Shot concession, 13th on Q2 performances, and 8th on Q3 performances

• Brisbane Lions’ 11th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 8th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 10th on Goals and Points Conceded per Game, and 9th on Q1 performances

• Richmond’s 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 12th on Goals and 11th on Points Conceded per Game, and 14th on Q4 performances

• GWS’ 11th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 8th on Q1, and 9th on Q2 performances

• Collingwood’s 9th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, and 14th on Q2 and Q3 performances

• Essendon’s 13th on Scoring Shot creation and on Scoring Shot concession, 10th on Points Scored per Game, 9th on Points Conceded per Game, 14th on Q1 performances, and 12th on Q2 performances

• Adelaide’s 10th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 10th on Q1 and Q3 performances, and 12th on Q4 performances

It’s also true that many of the teams outside the Top 8 have performed extraordinarily well on some metrics, including, for example, Sydney’s 4th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 6th on Q3 performances, and equal 6th on Quarters won.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

Based on the MoS Win Production Function, the current Top 8 on the ladder are those with the highest Expected Wins, albeit in a different order. The largest differences between Actual and Expected Wins now belong to:

• St Kilda (+1.8 wins, Actual less Expected)

• Richmond (+1.5 wins)

• Brisbane Lions (+1.3 wins)

• West Coast (+1.1 wins)

• Sydney (-1.9 wins)

• GWS (-1.7 wins)

• North Melbourne (-1.3 wins)

• Adelaide and Carlton (-1.1 wins)

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

Based on rank correlation the metrics most highly correlated with the current competition ladder ordering are the orderings based on:

• the MoS Win Production Function (+0.93)

• Points Scored (+0.93)

• Goals Scored (+0.92)

• % of Quarters Won (+0.87)

• Points Conceded (+0.82)

Those metrics least correlated are:

• Q2 performances (+0.34)

• Opponents’ Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.43)

• Q3 performances (+0.57)

• Q4 performances (+0.61)

• Q1 performances (+0.65)

The relatively low correlations between ladder positions and performances in individual quarters I think reflects the fact that no team - Geelong aside - has been able to dominate in every quarter. All of the teams in positions 2 through 8 on the competition ladder are ranked 9th or lower for at least one quarter, most of them for two quarters.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

Currently, the rank correlation between the teams’ ordering based on the MoS Win Production Function and that based on the competition ladder stands at a remarkable +0.96, suggesting that teams are (almost) ordered the same way based on both metrics.

That said, according to the MoS Win Production Function:

• St Kilda have won 1.7 games more than their scoring metrics would imply

• West Coast have won 1.3 games more than their scoring metrics would imply

• Richmond have won 1.2 games more than their scoring metrics would imply

• Brisbane Lions have won 1.0 games more than their scoring metrics would imply

• Melbourne have won 0.8 games more than their scoring metrics would imply

• Carlton have won 1.8 games fewer than their scoring metrics would imply

• GWS have won 1.4 games fewer than their scoring metrics would imply

• Hawthorn have won 1.2 games fewer than their scoring metrics would imply

• Sydney have won 1.0 games fewer than their scoring metrics would imply

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

Seven of the teams currently in the Top 8 spots on the competition ladder are 10th or worse on at least one Dashboard Metric.

• Collingwood are 14th on Q2 and Q3 performances

• West Coast are 12th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 13th on Q2 performances, and 12th on Q3 performances

• GWS are 13th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion

• Brisbane Lions are 10th on Scoring Shots Conceded, 13th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, 11th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 11th on Goals Conceded, 10th on Points Conceded, and 10th on Q1 performances

• Adelaide are 10th on Own Scoring Shot Conversion, and 12th on Q1 performances

• Richmond are 15th on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion, 10th on Points Scored, 12th on Goals Conceded, 12th on Points Conceded, 11th on Q3 performances, 14th on Q4 performances, and 13th on Expected Wins

• Fremantle are 12th on Own Scoring Shots, 12th on Goals Scored, 12th on Points Scored, and 15th on Q2 performances

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

One interesting feature it reveals is that the teams in the Top 8 on the competition ladder are now also the Top 8 teams as measured by Expected Wins according to the MoS Win Production Function, albeit in a different order.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below. Note that the ladder ordering is, again, determined by competition points earned per game played, which sees a slightly differently ordering to the standard competition ladder.

Of all the metrics on the Dashboard, it remains the case that the Expected Wins according to the MoS Win Production Function provides a ranking closest to that of the ladder as we determine it.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below. Note that the ladder ordering is determined on the basis of competition points earned per game played, which sees the Roos and Saints differently ordered in comparison to the standard competition ladder.

It continues to be the case that Geelong is the only team with consistently high rankings on all metrics, while other teams in the Top 8 on the ladder find themselves ranked as low as 15th on some metrics. We also have teams in the bottom seven places on the ladder ranked as high as 3rd on some metrics.

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below and, broadly speaking, suggests that the teams’ ladder positions are more highly correlated with :

• scoring points (+0.75 correlation) than with conceding them (+0.74)

• a team’s converting its own Scoring Shots (+0.64) than with the rate at which its opponents have converted their Scoring Shots (+0.25)

• the Goals a team scores (+0.90) than with the Goals it concedes (+0.73)

• the Points a team scores (+0.88) than with the Points it concedes (+0.78)

• Q4 performances (+0.75) than with Q3 (+0.57), Q1 (+0.54), or Q2 (+0.38) performances

• a team’s Expected Wins according to the MoS Win Production Function than with any other of the metrics on the Dashboard

The latest table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below and we can still see a number of teams whose rankings on particular metrics are quite different from their ladder positions, including:

• Collingwood, GWS and Richmond on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion

• Collingwood and West Coast on Q2s and Q3s, Richmond on Q4s, Adelaide on Q1s and Q4s, and Gold Coast on Q1s

• Brisbane Lions on Opponent Scoring Shots, Goals and Points, and on Own Scoring Shot conversion

• Sydney on Own and Opponent Scoring Shot conversion

• North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs on Own Goals and Points scored

Of all the Dashboard Metrics we track, those currently most correlated with team success (based on the rank correlation between team ordering on the metric and team ordering on the competition ladder) are:

• the MoS Win Production Function (correlation +0.93)

• Goals Scored per game (+0.90)

• Points Scored per game (+0.87)

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.79)

• Scoring Shots per Game (+0.78)

Looking across team rankings on the various Dashboard metrics would suggest that the Lions, Tigers and Eagles are the teams whose current elevated ladder positions are most at odds with those metrics.

According to the MoS Win Production Function, the top 7 teams on the competition ladder currently are also in the top 7 in terms of Expected Wins, and the bottom 5 teams on the competition ladder currently are also in the bottom for Expected Wins. The rank correlation between the teams’ ordering on the ladder and ordering by Expected Wins is now +0.90.

It’s interesting this season how seemingly unimportant scoring shot conversion has been: it’s all been about generating and preventing scoring shots, as the Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table below reveals.

Although the ladder now has two teams on 4 wins, nine on 3 wins, three on 2 wins, and one on a single win, the ordering provided by percentage sees the competition in much better agreement with MoS’ Expected Wins column this week. The only team ranked more than 4 places differently on Expected Wins compared to ladder position is Gold Coast, who are 11th on the ladder but 16th on Expected Wins.

On the basis of Team Dashboard metrics, including expected wins according the MoS Win Production Function, St Kilda and Gold Coast find themselves much higher on the competition ladder than they might reasonably expect.