It was yet another round with a fifty percent record for home teams as 1st defeated 2nd to improve their winning percentage in such Preliminary Final clashes to 89%, and 5th defeated 3rd to start that pairing off in the best possible way for the team without the double chance.

Overall, teams from 1st or 2nd now have a 65% record in Preliminary Finals, teams from 3rd or 4th a 38% record, and those from 5th or 6th a 30% record.

With no contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, all finished on 1 from 2, leaving MoSHPlay_Marg unbeatable atop the Leaderboard on 137.5 from 215 (64%), two tips clear of RSMP_Simple.

The all-Tipster average for the round came in at 1 from 2, taking the season-long figure to 131.5 from 215 (61%).

Margin prediction was again relatively easy this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging from RSMP_Weighted’s 12.1 points per game to MoSSBODS_Marg’s 23.2 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 16.2 points per game, which is about 7 points per game higher than last week. The season-long all-predictor average is now 27 points per game per predictor.

There were, again, no movements on the Margin Predictor Leaderboard.

The gap between 1st and 7th is still 79 points, but only 35 points separate 1st and 5th. RSMP_Simple’s lead is just under 4 goals.

Log probability scores were all positive and of a similar magnitude for all bookie-based forecasters this week, barely positive for MoSHPlay_Prob, and barely negative for the remaining MoS models.

The Leaderboard ordering is unchanged, with Bookie_LPSO still heading it up and looking strong favourites for the title.

WAGERING

Brisbane Lions turned from hero to foe with Investors this week after their second-half rally turned head-to-head and line bets on the Cats into losers.

Overall, the Combined Portfolio fell by just over 4c, which leaves it down now by a smidge over 33c on the season, that from a -9.2% ROT on a 3.6 turn.