Matter of Stats

View Original

2023 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay

UPDATE SUNDAY 2:30PM

MoSHPlay is still tipping the upset in the Hawks v Bombers game, but now by only 5 points.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30PM

MoSHPlay is a little more confident about the Giants’ chances having seen the final teams, and now has them winning by 8 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 7:15PM

Sydney by 6 points is MoSHPlay’s final offer.

UPDATE SATURDAY 4PM

MoSHPlay moves only a fraction of a point with the announcement of the final teams, but with rounding ends at Port Adelaide by 8 points.

UPDATE SATURDAY 1PM

With the announcement of the final teams, MoSHPlay has switched and has it now as the Eagles by 2 points.


UPDATE FRIDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 12 points (and has some changes to the Sunday forecasts now that Final Teams have been announced)


UPDATE THURSDAY 8PM

MoSHPlay has now had a chance to look at all the named squads and, assuming that the highest-rated 1 of the 4 Emergencies in the Final Teams, and highest-rated 5 of the 8 Interchanges in the Extended Squads, are eventually named, differs most from MoSHBODS in the following:

  • Dockers by 6 vs Saints by 4 (10 points different)

  • Power by 7 vs Power by 16 (9 points different)

  • Swans by 7 vs Suns by 2 (9 points different)

  • Cats by 10 vs Cats by 17 (7 points different)

In the five remaining games, the forecast margins differ by a goal or less.


UPDATE THURSDAY 6:45PM

With O’Brien named in the Blues’ team, MoSHPlay has moved to Tigers by 14 points.

UPDATE WEDNESDAY 7PM

MoSHPlay has been a little brave with its first forecast of the season, but nothing too outrageous (and still subject to adjustment when the subs are named)

Tigers by 12