Matter of Stats

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2023 - Round 20 Results - You Couldn't Have Picked It

When the average Head-to-Head Tipster records a worse than 1-in-3 record, and the best manages only 4 from 9, you know it’s been a tough round to tip..

MoSHBODS_Marg snagged three, but retains top spot, ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg, who bagged 4, and ENS_Linear, who also bagged 3. MoSHPlay_Marg scored only 1 from 9, and fell to equal 4th.

The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.7 from 9, which took the all-season figure to 113 from 171 (66%).

The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) were much higher this week and covered a range from MoSHBODS_Marg’s 30.2 points per game to MoSHPlay_Marg’s 34.4 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 31.4 points per game per Predictor, which is more than 13 points higher than last week.

The only movement on the Leaderboard was MoSHBODS_Marg moving ahead of Bookie_3.

Log probability scores were all very negative this week, but least so for MoSHBODS_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob. . MoSHPlay_Prob did enough, however, to retain 1st place on the Leaderboard, while MoSSBODS_Prob held 2nd, and MoSHBODS_Prob 3rd.

WAGERING

Despite a poor Sunday, all three Funds recorded 2 from 3 performances for the round, and turned in profits

Altogether, the Combined Portfolio rose by 2.4c, the third-best single round increase this season, which left it up by 13.9c on the season, that from a 16% ROT on a 0.86 turn.