Four Round 3 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, two more by less than 4 goals, and two more by about 6 to 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is about 22.5 points per game. Home teams are favourites in half of the contests.

To the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

All of this week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home, with everone else opting for the favourite in every contest.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six of the eight games, including 21 points in the Roos v Blues game, 16 points in the Dogs v Eagles game, and 14 points in the Tigers v Swans game.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSHBODS_Marg in five.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Roos v Blues (13% points), Power v Dees (12% points), and Dons v Saints, Tigers v Swans, and Hawks v Cats (all 11% points).

MoSHBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in five games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in four.

WAGERS

By recent standards, it’s a quiet week this week, but by the standards of previous seasons, there’s a lot of money in play.

I reverted to Monday morning wagering this week, and found both bookmakers a lot more accommodating, although there was still a little pushback from Sportsbet on one wager. In the end, though, Investors got everything on that they wanted to, and at the best price.

That everything this week was six head-to-head bets totalling 12.5% of the Funds, and five line bets totalling 14% of the Fund, as set out below.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that North Melbourne is carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Roos win and a loss by 37 points or more represents a swing of 9.2c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Melbourne (5.4%), Hawthorn (5.2%), Richmond (4.5%), West Coast (3.2%), and then St Kilda (1.5%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 17c, while a worst case set would snip just over 12c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.