Five Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.

Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.

To the tips.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Half of this week’s underdog support comes from Home Sweet Home, with the rest coming from Consult The Ladder in three contests, and the MoS twins in one game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six of the eight games, including 24 points in the Eagles v Giants game, 20 points in the Hawks v Dees game, 19 points in the Dogs v Suns game, and 15 points in the Swans v Dons game.

Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and the MoS twins in three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dogsv Suns (21% points), Hawks v Dees (15% points), Eagles v Giants (11% points), and Swans v Dons (10% points).

MoSHBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Most weeks, I try to get set on a Monday around 9am or 10am, partly because markets have not always been up before that in the past, but this week I thought I’d try to get on in the early hours of Monday morning. It turns out that limits are ridiculously tight then but, with a little bit of juggling, I managed to get everything I wanted on, albeit having to take a lower price or a less-attractive line in a few cases.

And what I wanted was, again, quite a lot of action, as you can see from the table below that sees 20% of the Head-to-Head Fund and 20% of the Line Fund in play.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

(Note that the estimated edges will be a little generous in a few cases because they reflect what the edges would have been had I got on at the best price and best line.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner is almost as frightening as last week’s, and reveals that Gold Coast is carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Suns win and a loss by 11 points or more represents a swing of 11.5c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Sydney (8%), Hawthorn and West Coast (7%), and then Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Richmond all in the 0.7% to 1.4% range.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 19c, while a worst case set would snip just under 18c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.