Matter of Stats

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2023 - Round 15 Results - MoSHPlay Hangs On

Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, including the MoS trio, tipped five of the six winners this week, which allowed MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg to retain equal 1st, now on 85.5 from 126 (68%), and MoSHPlay_Marg to retain outright 3rd, still just one tip behind

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.8 from 6, which took the all-season figure to 81.3 from 126 (65%).

The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) were much higher this week (thanks largely to the Swans 171-point victory), and covered a range from Bookie_LPSO’s 39.6 points per game to Bookie_9’s 42.7 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at about 41 points per game per Predictor, which is 10 points higher than last week.

MoSHPlay_Marg did enough to retain top spot, but now leads by only just under 50 points from Bookie_LPSO. ENS_Linear retained 3rd place, but now by only 0.6 points ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg.

Log probability scores were all highly positive again this week, and most positive of all for MoSSBODS_Prob, but not sufficiently superior to move it ahead of MoSHPlay_Prob. MoSHBODS_Prob retained 3rd, narrowly ahead of Bookie_LPSO.

WAGERING

Profitability this week all came down to Brisbane Lions, and they delivered for the Line Fund, more than offsetting the small loss incurred by the Overs/Unders Fund.

That left the Combined Portfolio up by 14c on the season, that from a 22% ROT on an 0.63 turn.