Matter of Stats

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2023 - Round 14 Results - MoSHPlay Forges a Lead

The MoS trio tipped all six winners this week, which saw MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg assume equal 1st on 80.5 from 120 (67%), and MoSHPlay_Marg move into outright 3rd, just one tip behind

The all-Tipster average for the round was 4.9 from 6, which took the all-season figure to 76.5 from 120 (64%).

The Margin Predictors’ mean absolute errors (MAEs) were generally higher again this week, and covered a range from MoSHPlay_Marg’s 25.8 points per game to ENS_Linear’s 33.8 points per game, with the all-Predictor average coming in at 31.1 points per game per Predictor.

That MoSHPlay_Marg result was enough to allow it to open up an almost 10-goal lead over Bookie_LPSO at the top of the Leaderboard. ENS_Linear, despite the poor perfromance, retained 3rd place, but only by 0.1 points ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg.

Log probability scores were all highly positive this week, and most positive for MoSHPlay_Prob, who now sit atop the Leaderboard and ahead of MoSSBODS_Prob. MoSHBODS_Prob rose from last place to 3rd on the back of the round’s third-best log probability score..

WAGERING

Only a 10-goal final term between the Roos and the Dogs prevented Investors from having the perfect weekend, but black ink from both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds was enough to see the Combined Portfolio rise by just over 2c on the round.

That left the Combined Portfolio up by 13.5c on the season, that from a 22% ROT on an 0.63 turn.