Matter of Stats

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2022 - Round 2 Results - A Little Regression

Two-thirds of the round’s favourites snaffled the four points this week, while only three of the wins were sized six goals or greater.

That made for an all-Head-to-Head Tipster average of 5.3 from 9, and an all-Margin-Predictor average MAE of 27.7 points per game.

Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters were Bookie Knows Best, the RSMP Tipsters, and ENS_Linear, all of which bagged six from nine, and the first three of which currently head the Leaderboard on 12 from 18 (67%). All other Head-to-Head Tipsters bar Home Sweet Home scored five from nine.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, honours went to MoSHPlay_Marg with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 26.3 points per game, which was enough to elevate it into 2nd spot on the Leaderboard, Bookie_9 recorded the second-best MAE, which was enough to keep it in 1st plac e.

Log probability scores were all near zero for the round, slightly positive for the three bookie-based forecasters and MoSHPlay_Prob, and slightly negative for the two other MoS-based forecasters. Bookie_OE currently heads the Leaderboard, ahead of Bookie_RE and MoSHPlay_Prob.

WAGERING

Investors suffered a small loss this week, profits coming only from the Hawks’ win and two successful Totals wagers. The Overs/Unders Fund being 4 from 4 in a year where I have halved that Fund’s portfolio weight and very nearly shut down the Fund entirely, is Alanis Morissette level ironic.

The overall round loss for the Combined Portfolio was 0.3c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 2.4c, that from a +18.8% ROT on a 0.13 turn.