Matter of Stats

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2022 - Round 17 Results - MoS Still Gathering

Six opening-market favourites won yet again this week, but some wise contrarian tipping by the MoS trio saw them all bag eight from nine, leaving MoSHBODS_Marg still two tips clear at the top of the Leaderboard, now on 106 from 144 (74%), ahead of MoSSBODS_Marg on 104 from 144 (72%), and Bookie Knows Best. now six tips behind, on 100 from 144 (69%).

The all-Tipster average came in at 6.4 from 9, keeping the all-Tipster all-season average at just over 68%.

The Margin Predictors were uncharacteristically imprecise this week, all of them turning in mean absolute errors (MAEs) in the 34.3 to 39.7 points per game range. MoSSBODS_Marg was best, ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg and then MoSHBODS_Marg.

The only movement on the Leaderboard was in the bottom half, with Bookie_Hcap and Bookie_9 climbing, and Bookie_3, RSMP_Weighted, and ENS_Linear falling.

The all-Predictor average came in at 37.2 points per game, which lifted the all-season all-Predictor average to 26.1 points per game.

Log probability scores were all positive yet again this week, though only just for the bookmaker-based Predictors, and much more comfortably so for the MoS trio. The order at the top is still MoSHPlay_Prob in first, but now MoSSBODS_Prob in second, ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob.

WAGERING

Gold Coast’'s some-from-behind win was part of another profitable round for Investors in which all but two wagers were collects and all three Funds returned green ink.

The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 2.9c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 35.6c, that from a +42% ROT on a 0.86 turn.