Welcome back to my long-time readers, and hello to those of you who might be here for the first time.

Firstly, to matters of admin, here’s what’s new and what’s not in 2023:

• The MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS models are largely unchanged

• The Player model used for MoSHPlay is now based on AFL Player Ratings, not SuperCoach Scores, exponentially downweights games based on how long ago they were played in forming its initial player one-game ahead forecasts, and also decays those forecasts the longer ago the most-recent game was played. The weights used by MoSHPlay to combine these player forecasts with MoSHBODS’ team forecasts, have also changed

• ENS_Linear has been reoptimised, includes last year’s results, and now has five base learners

• Fund weightings for the Combined Portfolio are unchanged at 30% Head-to-Head, 65% Line, and 5% Over/Under

• The Brownlow Model (which I’ve not previously blogged about here on the site) now uses Coaches votes as well as player statistics and game margins

That’s it in terms of the key changes and non-changes.

Turning to the games in prospect, the TAB Bookmaker has it as the most competitive Round 1 in terms of expected victory margins since at least 2012.

There are seven games with expected single-digit margins (two of those with expected margins of around half a goal) and the largest expected margin is only 14.5 points in the Geelong v Collingwood Friday night game.

The overall average expected victory margin comes in at just 7.7 points per game, which is broadly consistent with the views of the RSMP twins (7.1 for Simple, and 6.9 for Weighted), ENS_Linear (7.4), and the MoS twins (7.5 for MoSHBODS, and 7 for MoSSBODS)

Reality, hopefully, will deliver on expectations.

Anyway, on to the tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s contrarianism in seven of the round’s nine games (even if we ignore Home Sweet Home), with the MoS twins going rogue in four games (and MoSSBODS in a fifth), the RSMP twins and ENS_Linear doing the same in just one game, and Consult The Ladder opting for the underdogs in three games.

It’s reasonable to expect higher levels of disagreement during these early stages of the competition, but this year these levels seem to be particularly high.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 20 points in the Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions game, 17 points in the St Kilda v Fremantle game, 16 poins in the Melbourne v Western Bulldogs game, and 15 points in both the Gold Coast v Sydney, and Hawthorn v Essendon games

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 are the most extreme Predictors in five of the nine games, and ENS_Linear in three.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are also five games (the same five) with double-digit percentage point probability estimates, with the maximum of 21% points in the Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, and Bookie_RE in four.

WAGERS

As the ancient proverb goes, disagreement begets bets, and the high levels of disagreement this week have done much begetting.

In total, Investors face five head-to-head bets ranging in size from 1.3% to 2.9% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and five line bets ranging in size from 1.4% to 2% of the Line Fund That puts just under 9% of the Head-to-Head Fund and also just under 9% of the Line Fund at risk.

That is a brave opening volley …

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by about 8c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by about the same amount.

Port Adelaide, comfortably, carries the most risk, with the difference between a Port win and a loss by 3 points or more representing more than a 4c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Gold Coast, Hawthorn, and St Kilda all representing a potential swing of about 3c each, and the Western Bulldogs and GWS representing swings in the 1.5c to 2c range.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.