Matter of Stats

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 1

The MoS twins are, by design, big on punishments and rewards during the early rounds of a new season, and this week the Swans and the Lions, in particular, demonstrated that.

Overall, 12 teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS, and 13 by MoSHBODS, five by multiple spots on MoSSBODS, and five also by multiple spots on MoSHBODS. Richmond sits in 1st on both Systems having deposed Geelong.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9937.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Cats, Tigers, and Power, and on defence we find the pair with Top 3s of Pies, Tigers, and Power.

On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence, 6 are rated negatively on both, none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence, and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence. The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.486.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 14 teams this week, but left Richmond in first place, now ahead of Port Adelaide and then Geelong. It, also, makes relatively larger Ratings adjustments in the early parts of a season, and was particularly happy with Port Adelaide and Sydney, and unhappy with their opponents, North Melbourne and Brisbane Lions.

Only four teams moved by more than a single spot, however, and none by more than two spots.

Nine teams remain rated as better-than-average by MARS, and there is a three-point gap between the last of them, Collingwood (1,001), and the next best, GWS (997.8).

The Rating gap between first and last currently stands at just under 37 Rating Points. By comparison, at the same point last year the range was over 52 Rating Points.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest difference (of course) for West Coast, who are still to crack a Top 8 spot with either of the MoS twins.

MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for nine of the teams, with West Coast the most notable example.

By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for six teams, and MoSHBODS for just five.

It is, though, early, early days, and all three of the Rating Systems will remain frisky for the next month or so.

Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast (6 spots) has the widest range of rankings, while 12 teams have rankings than differ by no more than 2 spots, including North Melbourne, Melbourne, and Richmond, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.