Regular readers will know that I usually lock in the bookmaker’s forecasts fairly early in the week, but there was so much uncertainty about the venues for Round 12 that I’ve been forced to lock them in progressively as venues (and, in one case, State and, in another, which is the home team) have been confirmed.

If COVID has taught me nothing else, it’s been the need to remain flexible to changing model inputs.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

For the Head-to-Head Tipsters the only contention (Home Sweet Home aside) comes in the Blues v Eagles game where there are three dissenting Tipsters forecasting the upset.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in four of the six games this week, including 13 point ranges in the Crows v Pies, and Dons v Tigers games.

Of the 12 extreme forecasts, Bookie_3 has four, and RSMP_Simple, ENS_Linear, and MoSSBODS_Marg have two each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are double-digit percentage point ranges in only the Crows v Pies, and Dons v Tigers games, with the maximum 15% point range in the first of those.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the maximum possible six extreme estimates, while Bookie_LPSO has three, and Bookie_RE two.

WAGERS

Investors, despite the short round, face six wagers this week, three head-to-head wagers and three line wagers, two of which are on the same teams as head-to-head wagers. Because of the relatively small size of a number of those bets, Combined they represent only about 3% of the original Combined Portfolio.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The various scenarios for each wagered-upon game in terms of its possible effects on the value of the Combined Portfolio are summarised in the Ready Reckoner below.

Essendon, for the second week running, control most risk (in terms of the difference between the best and worst outcomes), with a maximum possible swing this week of 2.3c. Carlton and Collingwood can each affect a 1.5c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio, and Fremantle an 0.8c change.

Overall, the worst case is a loss of 2.9c for the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 3.3c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.