Matter of Stats

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2018 - Team Ratings After Round 2

It's a short week this week (and my non-footy, pays-the-bills working life is about to get a little busy), so I'm providing the updated team ratings tonight.

The first bit of news is that GWS has grabbed top spot on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS for the first time since R6 of 2016.

On both Systems, it jumped a single spot to grab that position, deposing Richmond in each case.

That left MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS with the same Top 5 teams, but with only GWS (in 1st) and Sydney (in 5th) identically ordered.

On MoSSBODS, the week's big movers were Collingwood and West Coast, both up 3 places, and Geelong and St Kilda, both down 4 places, while on MoSHBODS it was West Coast, up 4 places, Essendon down 4, and St Kilda down 5. Altogether, MoSSBODS reranked 17 teams this week, and MoSHBODS reranked 16. It really is the time of year when the Rating systems do their major sorting.

Turning next to the component ratings of the two MoS Systems we find that both have the Top 3 teams offensively as Adelaide, Richmond and GWS in that order, while on defence both have GWS in 1st, but MoSSBODS has Sydney in 2nd and Port Adelaide in 3rd, while MoSHBODS has the opposite ordering.

Altogether, MoSSBODS reranked 16 teams on offence and 15 on defence this week, while MoSHBODS reranked 13 on offence and, like MoSSBODS, 15 on defence.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, only St Kilda, ranked 15th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MoSHBODS, is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems
  • on defence, only Geelong, ranked 14th on MoSSBODS and 11th on MoSHBODS, and Fremantle, ranked 11th on MoSSBODS and 14th on MoSHBODS, are ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems

This week we'll have a first look at how team's MoSSBODS Ratings compare with those of previous Grand Finalists and other teams at the same point in the season (ie after Round 2). The points in red are for the post Round 2 ratings of teams that wound up taking the Flag, those in orange are for teams that finished as Runner Up, those in blue are for the 2018 teams, while those in honeydew are for every other team in history.

It's very early days, but we can see that the Brisbane Lions, Carlton and Gold Coast would create history were they even to make the Grand Final this year given their current Combined Ratings on MoSSBODS.

Next, let's take a look at MoS' MARS and ChiPS Team Rating Systems.

ChiPS now, like MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, has GWS in 1st place, while MARS has Adelaide there, with Sydney in 2nd, and GWS only in 3rd.

Only Richmond (2nd on ChiPS and 5th on MARS), Adelaide (4th on ChiPS and 1st on MARS), and Sydney (5th on ChiPS and 2nd on MARS) are ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • Geelong now has the widest range of rankings, m 6th on MoSSBODS, ChiPS and MARS, to 11th on MoSHBODS
  • Collingwood has the next-widest range, from 7th on MoSHBODS, to 12th on ChiPS
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the four Systems