Matter of Stats

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2018 - Team Ratings After Round 12

Collingwood's emphatic victory over Melbourne on Monday impressed the MoS twins enough to have them both install the Pies as their second-highest rated teams, dumping the Dees into 4th while leaving Richmond and West Coast in 1st and 3rd places, respectively, on both Systems.

Richmond is currently about a 3 Scoring Shot or 11 point better side that Collingwood, according to the Systems.

The two other big movers were GWS, up three spots on both Systems and into 5th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and North Melbourne, down four spots on MoSSBODS and three spots on MoSHBODS into 9th place on both Systems.

That left the two Systems agreeing about the ranking of 10 teams, and differing in the ranking of the other eight by no more than a single place. 

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:

  • the MoS twins have a Top 3 on offence of Richmond, Melbourne and then Collingwood
  • MoSSBODS has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Port Adelaide and then Collingwood, while MoSHBODS has it as Richmond, Port Adelaide, and then Sydney

Across all 18 teams we find that, still, no team is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems on offence, while on defence:

  • Collingwood is ranked 3rd by MoSSBODS and 7th by MoSHBODS
  • Geelong is ranked 7th by MoSSBODS and 4th by MoSHBODS

In the latest version of the animated GIF, which appears below, we see Richmond still dancing alone, but Collingwood now striding across the dance floor to meet them.

Viewed in the context of history, Richmond's continue to be rated at the upper end of what previous Flag winners have rated at the same point in the season (though now less so on the Offensive dimension), while Collingwood is the only other team now sitting above the median rating of previous Grand Finalists, with Melbourne and West Coast somewhat below that level.

As things stand now:

  • seven teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating
  • none has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating
  • three have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating
  • eight have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating

In total, 11 teams still have a negative offensive rating and eight have a negative defensive rating.

On ChiPS this week, five teams moved by more than a single spot: Sydney, Collingwood and GWS up three spots each, North Melbourne down two spots, and Melbourne down five spots, leaving it at the foot of a Rating snake that encompasses six teams with Ratings that differ now by only about 6 Rating Points.

MARS moved only four teams by more than a spot this week - and none by more than two spots - elevating Sydney and Geelong two spots each, and dropping West Coast and Melbourne down two spots each.

The two Systems differ by more than two places in their rankings only of:

  • Collingwood, ranked 3rd on ChiPS and 7th on MARS
  • GWS, ranked 6th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS
  • Adelaide, ranked 11th on ChiPS and 6th on MARS

Frankly, it feels a bit odd to have ChiPS and MARS still arguing about this many teams to this extent at roughly the halfway point in the season. That is, I think, another reflection of the relative evenness of the competition. 

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • GWS's and Gold Coast's ladder positions are most different from their average Rating System ranking. GWS are ranked higher by the Rating Systems than their ladder position, while Gold Coast is (still) ranked somewhat lower than its ladder position.
  • Adelaide (6th to 11th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Geelong (3rd to 8th) is also ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (2nd to 7th) is also ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Sydney (2nd to 6th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • GWS (5th to 9th) is also ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.