Matter of Stats

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2018 - Team Ratings After Round 11

Richmond remained top, but Melbourne grabbed second from West Coast on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, as neither System found the Eagles' win over the Saints sufficiently convincing to justify their previous rating.

The Saints' loss was, in fact, small enough to see it rise multiple spots into 13th on both Systems. Fremantle were the only team to fall multiple places on both Systems and now find themselves ranked 16th on MoSSBODS and 15th on MoSHBODS.

All the week's moves - 9 on MoSSBODS and 10 on MoSHBODS - see both Systems again with the same Top 4s, and again with no team ranked more than two places differently by them.

Towards the tops of the rankings, only about five Scoring Shots now separate Melbourne in 2nd from Hawthorn in 10th on MoSSBODS, and only just over 17 points separate Melbourne in 2nd from Hawthorn in 10th on MoSHBODS.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that MoSHBODS has retained the same Top 3 on offence (Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast) and slipped Port Adelaide into 3rd on defence, behind an unchanged Top 2 of Richmond and Sydney. MoSSBODS elevated North Melbourne to 3rd on offence behind Richmond and Melbourne, and raised West Coast into 3rd on defence, behind Richmond and Port Adelaide.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that no team is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems on offence, while on defence:

  • Geelong is ranked 8th by MoSSBODS and 5th by MoSHBODS
  • Adelaide is ranked 14th by MoSSBODS and 11th by MoSHBODS
  • Fremantle is ranked 12th by MoSSBODS and 15th by MoSHBODS

No other team is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems on either rating component. 

In the latest version of the animated GIF, which appears below, we see Richmond remaining resolute in its desire to dance alone.

Looked at in the context of history, Richmond's continue to be rated at the upper end of what previous Flag winners have rated at the same point in the season, while Melbourne is now the only other team sitting above the median rating of previous Grand Finalists after West Coast fell just below that level this past weekend.

As things stand now:

  • six teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating
  • none has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating
  • four have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating
  • eight have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating

In total, 12 teams still have a negative offensive rating and eight (two more than last week) have a negative defensive rating.

Moving next to MoS' Traditional Rating Systems, we find firstly that MARS stripped more Rating points from the Crows this week, slipping them back another place and into sixth.

MARS also elevated Melbourne into third, to leave it with a Top 3 of Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne, while ChiPS switched Melbourne into second, relegating West Coast into third and leaving Richmond in first. 

The only team moving by more than a single spot on either System was Geelong, who climbed two spots to fourth on ChiPS.

As things now stand, the two Systems differ by more than two places in their rankings of only Adelaide, who ChiPS ranks 11th and MARS ranks 6th.

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • St Kilda's and Gold Coast's ladder positions are most different from their average Rating System ranking. St Kilda are ranked somewhat higher by the Rating Systems than their ladder position, while Gold Coast is ranked lower than its ladder position.
  • Adelaide (6th to 11th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Geelong (4th to 9th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (4th to 8th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • North Melbourne (5th to 9th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.