Matter of Stats

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2018 - Team Ratings After Round 10

Richmond and West Coast both did enough this weekend to hang onto their top rankings on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, while Melbourne's big win over Adelaide convinced MoSHBODS that it should, like MoSSBODS, lift the Dees into third.

Further down the list, Sydney, despite winning, fell two places on both Systems. It's now ranked 6th on MoSSBODS and 5th on MoSHBODS.

The week's moves sees both Systems now with the same Top 4s of Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne, and Collingwood, and with no team ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems.

Only about five Scoring Shots now separate West Coast in 2nd and Essendon in 10th on MoSSBODS, and only just over 16 points separates West Coast in 2nd and Geelong in 10th on MoSHBODS.

Looking next at the component ratings, we see that MoSSBODS has retained the same Top 3 on offence (Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast) and on defence (Richmond, Port Adelaide, Sydney). MoSHBODS switched second and third on offence and now has it, like MoSSBODS, as Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast, and also slipped Port Adelaide to fourth on defence to leave it with Richmond, Sydney and West Coast as its Top 3.

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • Hawthorn is ranked 15th by MoSSBODS on Offence and 11th by MoSHBODS
  • Geelong is ranked 10th by MoSSBODS on Defence and 6th by MoSHBODS
  • GWS is ranked 7th by MoSSBODS on Offence and 10th by MoSHBODS
  • Adelaide is ranked 10th by MoSSBODS on Offence and 7th by MoSHBODS

No other team is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems on either rating component. 

In the latest version of the animated GIF, which appears below, we see Richmond preserving its lead over the pack but also Melbourne's continued rise.

Looked at in the context of history, Richmond's rating remains at the upper end of what previous Flag winners have rated at the same point in the season, while Melbourne and West Coast sit just above the median rating of previous Grand Finalists.

As things stand now:

  • five teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating
  • one has a (barely) positive offensive and a negative defensive rating
  • seven have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating
  • five have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating

In total, 12 teams have a negative offensive rating but only six have a negative defensive rating. That's what eight rounds of generally low-scoring will do to a set of ratings.

MARS this week finally started to doubt its previously glowing opinion of the Crows, slipping them four places back into fifth spot and installing Richmond in first.

Both Systems now have the same Top 2 of, in order, Richmond and West Coast, and both have Melbourne and Sydney in the next two spots, though ChiPS prefers Melbourne for third while MARS prefers Sydney.

The big movers on both Systems were GWS, who slipped three spots on both.

As things now stand, the two Systems differ by more than two places in their rankings of only three teams:

  • Adelaide (ranked 11th on ChiPS and 5th on MARS)
  • Collingwood (ranked 5th on ChiPS and 8th on MARS)
  • Western Bulldogs (ranked 16th on ChiPS and 13th on MARS)

Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder (ordered firstly based on competition points earned as a proportion of the maximum possible given the number of games played), we find that:

  • Collingwood's and Gold Coast's ladder positions are most different from their average Rating System ranking. Collingwood continue to be ranked somewhat higher by the Rating Systems than their ladder position, while Gold Coast is ranked lower than its ladder position.
  • Adelaide (5th to 11th) is ranked six places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Geelong (6th to 10th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • Collingwood (4th to 8th) is also ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
  • No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.