Matter of Stats

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2018 - Round 4 Results - Marginally Higher

In a week where six victory margins were over 40 points and the average margin was almost nine goals, it's not at all surprising that the mean Margin Predictor MAE was a season-high 42.5 points per game.

Best - or, more accurately, least worst - was Bookie_9, whose 41.3 MAE was enough to move it to the top of the MoS Leaderboard. Worst was C_Marg's 45.8 MAE, which cemented its last place.

The MoS twins made up no ground on the Predictors ahead of them and remain about 12 to 13 goals off the pace.

They did, however, tip more winners than any other of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which, for MoSHBODS_Marg, was enough to move it into a share of the lead on 25 from 36 (69%). The all-Tipster average for the round was 6.3 after every Tipster, the MoS twins aside, registered 6 correct tips.

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors it was another solidly positive week on probability scoring, with Bookie_LPSO doing best, and C_Marg worst. That left Bookie_LPSO in 1st place on the Leaderboard, and C_Prob in last.

WAGERS

The difference between a small gain and a small loss this week was but a late behind in the Dons v Power game, which nudged the total over 189 and scuppered an unders bet.

Still, a loss it was, which extends the losing streak to four weeks. 

The positive news was that both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds turned a profit, which constrained the overall loss for the week to just 0.4c.

That leaves the Combined Portfolio down 3.7c on the season, the result of a -10.8% ROI on about a 0.34 turn.