Matter of Stats

View Original

2018 - Round 22 Results - MoSSBODS Drops Back

Only Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home tipped fewer than seven winners this week, which left ENS_Linear still with a two tip lead over Bookie Knows Best at the top of the Leaderboard.

ENS_Linear is now on 134.5 from 189 (71%).

Amongst the Margin Predictors it was another disappointing week for the MoS twins, though moreso for MoSHBODS_Marg than MoSSBODS_Marg, who knows finds itself over 200 points from the lead The round's best mean absolute error (MAE) was recorded by C_Marg at 24.7 points per game, ahead of RSMP_Weighted (25.4) and RSMP_Simple (25.7).

Those results saw RSMP_Weighted climb to 4th and RSMP_Simple to 7th, and slipped MoSSBODS_Marg back into 8th, though only about 2 goals behind RSMP_Weighted.

Probability Scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were all positive this week, particularly so for the three bookie-based Predictors who all recorded their best single-round results of the season.

That left MoSSBODS_Prob still in 4th on the Leaderboard, behind Bookie_LPSO in 3rd, and saw Bookie_RE slip ahead of Bookie_OE into 1st.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund was on the wrong side of three potentially lucrative results on Saturday afternoon, two of which were decided by less than a goal, the collective failure of which saw it drop almost 12c to finish the round down by 21c. 

The Line Fund also made a loss, but a much smaller one, while the Overs/Unders Fund made a profit for the second successive week, but nowhere near large enough to offset the losses of the two other Funds.

In aggregate, the Combined Portfolio fell by just over 3c to finish down by 9.4c on the season from a -5.0% ROI on about a 1.87 turn.

It's hard to see the Portfolio finishing in the black this season now.