Last week produced almost 190 points per game, which was about 3.5 to 4 goals higher than our forecasters' expectations, but this hasn't much elevated expectations for this week, especially those of the bookmakers.

At the level of the individual games, there are some sizeable differences of opinion, most notably in the Hawks v Cats, Pies v Lions, and Giants v Crows games. More on these later.

There's mostly agreement, though, about which will most-likely be the high- and low-scoring games and teams this week.

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING GAME

• MoSSBODS: Essendon v St Kilda (182)
• MoSHBODS: Essendon v St Kilda and Collingwood v Brisbane Lions (178)
• TAB & Centrebet: Collingwood v Brisbane Lions (186.5)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING GAME

• All: Port Adelaide v West Coast (150.5 to 153)

MOST LIKELY HIGH-SCORING TEAM

• All: Richmond (107 to 116)

MOST LIKELY LOW-SCORING TEAM

• All: Gold Coast (51.5 to 56)

MoSHBODS' performance was mixed last weekend - excellent for predicting the high- and low-scoring teams, but relatively poor for predicting the high- and low-scoring games. Specifically, it attached:

• 16.0% probability to the highest-scoring team, GWS (against a naive forecast of 5.6% since 18 teams were playing)
• 22.2% probability to the lowest-scoring team, Carlton (against a naive forecast of 5.6%)
• 5.6% probability to the highest-scoring game, West Coast v Fremantle (against a naive forecast of 11.1% since 9 games were played)
• 11.6% probability to the lowest-scoring game, Sydney v Collingwood (against a naive forecast of 11.1% since 9 games were played)

This week, MoSHBODS has

• six teams as more likely than 1 in 18 to be the highest-scoring: Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS, Essendon, and North Melbourne.
• eight teams as more likely than 1 in 18 to be the lowest-scoring: Gold Coast, Sydney, Carlton, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and West Coast.
• four games as more likely than 1 in 9 to be the highest-scoring: Dons v Saints, Pies v Lions, Giants v Crows, and Dees v Swans
• four games as more likely than 1 in 9 to be the lowest-scoring: Power v Eagles v Dockers, Dockers v Blues, Suns v Tigers, and Hawks v Cats

In short, it's a round where the teams and games fall fairly naturally into likely low-scoring or likely high-scoring, but where there's relatively little differentiation within those categories.

WAGERS

Investors have just four wagers this week, two unders and two overs bets on overlays ranging from about 2 to 5 goals. In three of the games with wagers, the overlay is due mostly to differences of opinion about the likely scoring of a single team - Hawthorn against Geelong, Brisbane Lions against Collingwood, and North Melbourne against the Western Bulldogs - but in the GWS v Adelaide game, MoSSBODS has both teams scoring 13 to 15 points more than the bookmakers do, which is why the overlay is so large there.

The relevant weather forecasts are as follows:

• Hawthorn v Geelong (Saturday, MCG - overs bet): Showers. 80% chance of rain.
• Collingwood v Brisbane Lions (Saturday, Docklands - unders bet): Showers with a chance of roof
• GWS v Adelaide (Saturday, Manuka - overs bet): Shower or two developing. 70% chance of rain
• Kangaroos v Western Bulldogs (Sunday, Docklands - unders bet): Shower or two with a chance of roof

So, forecast rain at the venue for both the overs bets, and a roof for both the unders bets. Perfect.

(Still, those estimated overlays are nice ...)

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

MoSSBODS finished on the right side of TAB and Centrebet totals in four games last week, while MoSHBODS managed the same score against the TAB but just three against Centrebet.

That left MoSSBODS' with a season-long 49% record against the TAB and a 48% record against Centrebet, and left MoSHBODS with a 47% record against the TAB and a 49% record against Centrebet. 

In games where it wagered, MoSSBODS' landed 1 from 1 overs bets with the TAB, 1 from 1 overs bets with Centrebet, and 0 from 4 unders bets with Centrebet. That lifted its overall strike rate on overs bets to 33% and dropped its overall strike rate on unders bets to 55%. A week where the strike rate on overs bets has exceeded that on unders bets has been a rare thing indeed this season.

On the mean absolute error (MAE) metric, MoSHBODS registered the lowest MAE in all four categories this week: game margin, home team scores, away team scores, and game totals.

That left Centrebet still leading on the season-long view for home team scores (MAE of 17.8) and for game margins (26.6), and took it into outright leadership for game totals (22.5). The TAB still leads on away team scores (17.6).