Matter of Stats

View Original

2018 - Round 15 Results - Can't Grumble

Only five favourites were victorious this weekend, and ENS_Linear managed to tip one of the four upsets, thereby extending its lead to two tips at the head of the MoS Leaderboard. It's now on 91.5 from 126 (73%). None of the other Head-to-Head Tipsters did better than 5 from 9, and the all-Tipster average came in at 4.4.

Best amongst the Margin Predictors for the second week in a row was MoSSBODS_Marg whose mean absolute error (MAE) for the round was just 20.7 points per game, which rocketed it up the Leaderboard into 6th and reduced the gap to Bookie_Hcap down to 10 goals.

Bookie_9 also had a strong round, catapulting it into 2nd ahead of Bookie_LPSO. Bookie_3, who previously filled that 2nd spot fell to 4th.

For the first time in quite a while, the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all recorded negative probability scores this week, though MoSSBODS_Prob's was barely negative, and good enough to lift it into 2nd place on the Leaderboard behind Bookie_LPSO, who retained 1st spot.

WAGERS

This was quite the weekend for Investors, as both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds registered double-digit returns, which saw both Funds end the round in profit.

(Note that there were errors in the return calculations for the Head-to-Head Fund in Round 13, which meant that, instead of being down by 7c at the beginning of this round, it was down by 10.3c.)

The Overs/Unders Fund bagged only 1 from 3 for the week, its 2c loss lowering the profit for the Combined Portfolio to 6.4c, still a season-record.

As a result, the Combined Portfolio is back in profit for the season for the first time since Round 10. That profit is a small one of 0.5c, the result of a +0.4% ROI on about a 1.31 turn.