Just six more games this weekend, but only one with a single-digit expected margin and five with expected margins of roughly four goals or more. Unless you're a fan of one of the firm favourites or these pre-game expectations prove to be wrong, this round could get fairly ugly, fairly quickly from an aesthetic viewpoint.

Overall, the average expected margin has come in at just over 31 points per game, which is about 2.5 points per game higher than the long-term average for Round 14s and over 8 points per game higher than what Round 14 served up in 2017.

That lifts the 2018 season average expected margin to 19.6 points per game - still low by historical standards, but high compared to last season.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

With so many sizeable favourites in the round, it's no surprise that, Home Sweet Home aside, there's little disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week. 

In fact, the only non-HSH disagreement comes in the Port Adelaide v Melbourne game where Consult The Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg have both sided with the underdog Dees. That means there'll be no significant changes at the head of the Leaderboard again this weekend, and ENS_Linear's lead is safe.

(If you've forgotten - or never known - how ENS_Linear was built, the process of its creation is discussed in this blog from the pre-season.)

Amongst the Margin Predictors, it's the Port Adelaide v Melbourne, and Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne games that have elicited the widest range of forecasts spanning 22 points in the case of the former, and 18 points in the latter. MoSHBODS_Marg is responsible for a large proportion of the range in the Power v Dees game as its forecast of a 10 point Dees victory is at least 16 points different from every other Predictor.

That 10-point Dees forecast from MoSHBODS_Marg comprises a 2-point higher Rating for the Dees and an 8-point better Venue Performance Value, the Dees having performed far better than expected at Adelaide Oval in the seven games they've played there so far.

Bookie_3 has the most extreme forecast in four of the contests this week, Bookie_9 in three, MoSSBODS_Marg in two, and RSMP_Simple, C_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg in one each. Bookie_3 has the round's highest mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 5.6 points per game (ppg), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg's 5.4 ppg and Bookie_9's 4.9 ppg.

In comparison to the current leader, Bookie_Hcap, a best set of results for MoSSBODS_Marg would see it move from about 104 points behind to 74 points behind, while a best set of results for MoSHBODS_Marg would see it move from about 122 to about 76 points behind.

The mean expected margin across the six games and all Margin Predictors is 30.1 points per game, which is this week slightly below the TAB bookmaker's average,.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find a large range in the probability estimates only for the Port Adelaide v Melbourne game where MoSHBODS_Prob's estimated probability is 21% points different from even the nearest Predictor. That's lifted the mean absolute deviation for this game to a hefty 6.1% per Predictor - as good an example you could find of a situation where the mean is in no way typical of the distribution. 

In a stunning homage to symmetry, this week sees each of the six Predictors registering the extreme probability estimate in two contests each. MoSHBODS_Prob has the round's highest MAD of 5.0% points per game, ahead of MoSSBODS_Prob's 3.9%.

WAGERS

Investors again have wagers on only half of the weekend's games, the full set comprising three head-to-head and two line wagers. 

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Each of the three games carries a swing of between 1.7% (Lions v Giants) and 4.6% (Dogs v Roos), with all five of the wagers on underdogs, and the prices for the head-to-head bets ranging from $2.45 to $4.85. It is by no means a low-risk portfolio that we've invested in this week, the game-by-game details of which are reflected in the Ready Reckoner below.

In total, just under 4% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is 7%, the excess of reward over risk this week a function of having those three head-to-head wagers at well over even-money odds.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.