Matter of Stats

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2018 - Round 14 Results - Fairly Predictable

Five of six favourites won this week, which kept the all-Tipster average high across the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and a general lack of disagreement allowed ENS_Linear to retain its one tip lead over Bookie Knows Best at the head of the Leaderboard.

Best amongst the Margin Predictors was MoSSBODS_Marg whose mean absolute error (MAE) for the week was just 19.3 points per game. That left it now just over 16 goals behind the leading Predictor, which continues to be Bookie_Hcap. Bookie_3 remains in 2nd, now 3 goals behind the leader, and Bookie_LPSO remains 3rd, about another two goals further back.

In fact, this week the ordering of the Predictors finished as it started, which means there have been no changes since the end of Round 12.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors all recorded positive probability scores for another week, with the three bookie based Predictors and C_Prob all recording roughly the same, highest scores for the round, while MoSHBODS_Prob recorded the lowest. The ordering remains as it was last week, Bookie_LPSO, Bookie_RE, and then Bookie_OE.

WAGERS

I make it a point here never to lament bad luck too much nor to treat good luck as anything more significant than that, but I do think it worth noting this week that the Dogs' last minute loss was a significant factor in the Funds' loss for the round.

That loss meant that the Head-to-Head Fund went 0 and 3, shedding 7.5c in the process. The Overs/Unders Fund added to that loss via a 1 and 3 performance, it too a little misfortunate in landing on the wrong side of an 11.8 final term in the Lions v Giants game, which torpedoed what had seemed an unloseable unders wager at Three Quarter time.

The Line Fund made a small profit, but that made only a tiny dent, leaving the Combined Portfolio down by 3.6c on the round. It is now down by only 4.8c on the season, the result of a -4.0% ROI on about a 1.18 turn.