Just the seven games this week as we navigate through the who's-got-the-bye-again-this-weekend portion of the season, which won't end until we're through Round 14. Having successive weeks with 8, 9, 7, 6 and 6 games seems an odd way to accommodate the effectively nine games worth of byes required, but I'm sure there were constraints that necessitated it. 

Anyway, this week's fare includes three games expected to be decided by less than two goals, and two more expected to be decided by less than three, all of which has produced an average Expected Margin of 18.1 points per game.

That's a little higher than the averages for Round 12s of recent seasons, but under the seven season average, including this year, of just under 24 points per game. It's also a little higher than the average for all rounds in season 2018, though we're yet to see whether last weekend's spike heralded a permanent increase in expected margins for the remainder of the season.

Last week we looked at the game margins and total scores of 2018 in an historical context using two charts, updated versions of which appear below.

What these show is that the season is still best characterised as one with historically low scores (the lowest since 1968) but also with relatively few close games and a lowish number of blowouts compared to other seasons in the era. As a result, average margins are roughly on par with the average for the current era.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The Head-to-Head Tipsters are showing unusually high levels of dissension this week, much of it coming - Home Sweet Home aside - from C_Marg and the MoS twins, who doubt that Essendon and Adelaide deserve favouritism in their respective matchups.

Though none of that trio could close the gap entirely to the leading Tipsters, they could substantially reduce the deficit given favourable outcomes.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we see much the same pattern of contrarianism, with C_Marg and the MoS twins arriving at very different margin predictions than their counterparts in most of the games.

Relative to the current leader, Bookie_Hcap, a best set of results for MoSSBODS_Marg would see it move from about 55 points behind to 45 points ahead, while a best set of results for MoSHBODS_Marg would see it move from about 96 to about 35 points behind. Again this week, those are very unlikely entire scenarios, but MoSSBODS_Marg would make significant inroads solely with Kangaroos and Fremantle wins, and with a small St Kilda loss.

At the game level, the C_Marg and MoS twins' contrarianism has bumped up the mean absolute differences (MADs) to over 7 points per Predictor in the Fremantle v Adelaide game, and to over 8 points per Predictor in the St Kilda v Sydney game.

The mean expected margin across the seven games this week and all Margin Predictors is 15.9 points per game, which, for the first round in a while, is below the TAB bookmaker's average, thanks largely to some of those contrarian views.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors we find larger ranges in the probability estimates for the Port Adelaide v Richmond, St Kilda v Sydney, and Fremantle v Adelaide games. MoSSBODS_Prob also has a very different view of the Geelong v North Melbourne game, and can't see why the home team are favourites.

Altogether, we have MoSSBODS_Prob as the Predictor most extreme in five contests and Bookie_RE and Bookie_LPSO in three each. C_Marg's and the MoS twins' views have led to extremely large (indeed, double-digit) MADs in the St Kilda v Sydney, and Fremantle v Adelaide games.

This weekend's log probability scores are likely going to span quite a range.

WAGERS

Wagering this week has proved an interesting exercise, as both the TAB and Centrebet at various points have chosen to restrict the action they were willing to offer MoS Investors. 

The table below then should be seen as reflecting the wagers that would have been placed in an optimal, unconstrained environment.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The main difference between what we have and what we'd like it that we've about 44% of our head-to-head wager on Fremantle at $2.90 rather than $3, and about 50% of our line wager on the same team at $1.91 with only 15.5 rather than 16.5 points start.

(There was also, for a time, a hesitance in accepting our entire head-to-head bet on the Saints at $5, but we got there in the end by spreading it across the two bookmakers at the same price.)

The ready reckoner, which quantifies those wagers' individual and collective risk, appears below, and is more complicated than is usually the case for that Fremantle game.

The swings in the Saints and Freo games are the defining characteristics of the round, though the Cats v Roos game also has a swing larger than a typical game.

In total, almost 10% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk and the maximum upside is almost 13%. This looks likely to be a defining round for Investors in 2018.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.