Matter of Stats

View Original

2018 - Round 12 Results - Yeah, Not So Much ...

We knew before the round started that there'd be no significant moves on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard, though we might reasonably have hoped for a better than 4 from 7 return, but that's what we got from all the Tipsters except Home Sweet Home, who bagged only 3 from 7.

That left ENS_Linear still with its one tip lead over Bookie Knows Best, but now with a slightly lower accuracy of 74.5 from 105 (71%).

C_Marg and the MoS twins fared relatively badly on margin predicting this week, MoSSBODS_Marg most of all with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 37.4 points per game, almost six points per game worse that Bookie_3's all-Predictor best of 31.7 points per game. That left MoSSBODS_Marg about 14 goals behind the leading Predictor, who continues to be Bookie_Hcap.

Bookie_9 also had a relatively poor week, which dropped it to fourth behind Bookie_3 and Bookie_LPSO.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors recorded positive probability scores for the 7th round in succession (the 10th round in succession for C_Prob, oddly enough, given its last place on the Leaderboard), but those scores were much lower than they've been for the past few weeks.

On the Leaderboard, the top 3 spots were unchanged and remain Bookie_LPSO, Bookie_RE, and then Bookie_OE. Further down the board, MoSHBODS_Prob retook 4th spot from MoSSBODS_Prob.

WAGERS

This weekend was a poor one for Investors and, but for Fremantle's efforts, would have been poorer still.  

The Dockers' win was enough to see the Head-to-Head Fund turn a small profit on the weekend, but this was nowhere near sufficient to offset the Line Fund's 6c loss and the Overs/Unders Fund's 8c loss.

(It's amusing that the only major collects for the weekend were on games where I was unable to place the full head-to-head and line wagers at the higher price.)

Combined, the three Funds snipped over 4c off the price of the Combined Portfolio, which is now down by 3.1c on the season, the result of a -2.9% ROI on about a 1.07 turn.