This week it's a return to a menu full of games expected to be decided by three goals or less, with only three games not fitting that description according to the bookmakers.

Even the game with the highest expected margin - the Lions v Dogs game - carries only a 5 goal handicap, which has meant that the all-game average has come in at 13.5 points per game, the second-lowest for a home-and-away round this season and the third-lowest for a home-and-away round since 2012 (at least). 

As usual, the expected closeness of the contests has not much translated into disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters who this week have collectively turned in an Overall Disagreement Index of just 17%. That's below the season-long average of 20% and the lowest since Round 14.

Only Home Sweet Home and C_Marg have tipped underdogs in more than a single game, and they in juat two games each. Amongst the Tipsters towards the top of the Leaderboard, the only divergence of opinion has come in the St Kilda v West Coast game where the two RSMP Tipsters have selected the narrow underdog Eagles. Should the Eagles be successful, the RSMP Tipsters will halve MoSSBODS_Marg's two tip lead over them.

There's a little more diversity of opinion amongst the Margin Predictors, their average mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the week 3.6 points per Predictor per game and the highest since Round 17 though still one half a point per game below the all-season average.

C_Marg, again, has the highest MAD, this week at 9.3 points per game, its highest since Round 8. Next-highest is MoSSBODS_Marg with 6.0 points per game, which is around its season-average. Third is MoSHBODS_Marg at 4.0 points per game.

MoSHBODS_Marg now leads MoSSBODS_Marg by about 9 points and the two RSMP Predictors by about 11 points, and will see those leads change depending on the outcomes of each game roughly as follows:

• Increase by 6 points over the RSMP Predictors if Geelong win by 8 points or more
• Increase by 5 points over the RSMP Predictors if GWS win by 11 points or less (but decline by 1 or 2 points over MoSSBODS_Marg)
• Increase by 6 or 7 points over the RSMP Predictors if Essendon win by 21 points or less (but possibly decline by 1 point over MoSSBODS_Marg)
• Increase by 2 points over RSMP_Simple and 7 points over MoSSBODS_Marg if the Western Bulldogs win by 25 points or fewer
• Increase by 5 points over MoSSBODS_Marg if Collingwood win by 9 points or fewer (but possibly decline by 1 or 2 points over the RSMP Predictors)
• Increase by 4 points over the RSMP Predictors and 3 points over MoSSBODS_Marg if Fremantle win by 10 points or fewer
• Increase by 18 points over the RSMP Predictors if St Kilda win by 16 points or more (but only increase over MoSSBODS_Marg if the victory margin is in the 16 to 19 point range)
• Increase by 6 to 7 points over the RSMP Predictors and 2 points over MoSSBODS_Marg if Richmond win by 9 points or more
• Increase by 3 points over the RSMP Predictors if Adelaide win by 10 points or less (but only increase over MoSSBODS_Marg if the victory margin is in the 7 to 10 point range)

Only two games carry a MAD of greater than 4 points per Predictor, the highest MAD of 7.5 coming in the St Kilda v West Coast game, and the second-highest MAD of 4.2 coming in the Essendon v Carlton game.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors have an Overall MAD for the round of 4.4% points per Predictor per game, which is above the all-season average of 4.3% but the second-highest since Round 12.

Eliciting the largest MADs are the Saints v Eagles (8.9%), Crows v Power (5.4%), and Roos v Pies (4.9%) clashes.

C_Prob has the round's highest MAD (8.1% points per game), ahead of MoSSBODS_Prob (4.9% points per game), and then Bookie_RE (3.6% points per game).

MoSHBODS_Prob, our current leader, would be hurt most by a Fremantle victory or a Richmond loss, though neither result would be catastrophic in terms of log probability scores.

WAGERS

Investors have six head-to-head and another two line bets this week, with four of the six head-to-head bets on underdogs but all of them, collectively, smaller than the single head-to-head bet on the Saints.

In total, the eight wagers represent 3.9% of initial Overall Funds, which is quite low in the context of the season so far.

The Saints, easily, carry the round's largest upside and downside, their game representing 2.2% of the aggregate 4.7% upside, and 2.5% of the aggregate 3.9% downside.

The only other team carrying material levels of upside are the Lions who could add just under 1% to the value of the Overall Portfolio should they upset the Dogs on Saturday.

MoSSBODS AND MoSHBODS

Here are the MoS twins' views on team and total scoring for the week.

Commentary to follow.