Matter of Stats

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2017 - Team Ratings After Round 21

Adelaide and Sydney continue to enjoy a healthy rating lead over all of their rivals on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, though GWS are making most progress in bridging or, at least, steadying the gap.

The Top 4 teams on both Systems remain Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, and Richmond, in that order. 

On MoSSBODS, half of the teams moved rankings this week, though only two by multiple places, Port Adelaide recovering some of last weeks' decline in rising two places into 8th, and Essendon falling three places into 9th.

Just seven teams moved on MoSHBODS, three by multiple spots. Port Adelaide recovered even further on this System, climbing four places into 6th, with the Western Dogs sliding two places into 7th, and Collingwood also sliding two places into 10th.

Collingwood's fall on MoSHBODS (and one spot rise on MoSSBODS) left it as the only team ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems. It's now 7th on MoSSBODS and 10th on MoSHBODS.

On Offensive Ratings, no team moved multiple places on both Systems this week, In fact, only one team moved multiple places on either System, the Dogs slipping two spots to 7th on MoSSBODS.

Defensively, two teams moved by multiple places, Hawthorn climbing two spots on both Systems, and West Coast falling four spots on MoSSBODS and two spots on MoSHBODS.

In terms of Ratings compression, we now have:

  • For MoSSBODS on Offence the gap between 2nd and 10th is 2.7 Scoring Shots
  • For MoSHBODS on Offence the gap between 2nd and 8th is 7.2 points
  • For MoSSBODS on Defence the gap between 2nd and 13th is 3.1 Scoring Shots
  • For MoSHBODS on Defence the gap between 5th and 13th is 6.3 points

These represent a slight widening in the Ratings compared to previous weeks.

On offence, MoSSBODS still has, and MoSHBODS now has, the ordering as Adelaide, Essendon and then Sydney, with GWS dropping out of MoSHBODS' Top 3.

Defensively, both Systems still have the ordering as Sydney, Richmond and then Adelaide.

The latest round-by-round MoSSBODS Rating journey animation appears below and highlights Adelaide's and Sydney's dominance, but also GWS' move into a clear 3rd place.

Next, a look at the current MoSSBODS Ratings compared with those for every other team in history that also had a Round 21 in its home-and-away season.

Adelaide is one of the highest offensively rated teams at the end of a Round 21 in any season, as is Sydney defensively. GWS, Richmond and (barely) the Western Bulldogs are the only other teams with Combined Ratings above at least one team that subsequently won the Flag.

ChiPS AND MARS

ChiPS and MARS each re-ranked only 6 teams this week, and none by more than a single place.

That left ChiPS' Top 3 unchanged as Adelaide, Sydney and Port Adelaide, but saw MARS move GWS into 3rd behind Adelaide and Sydney.

Across the four Systems, the only teams appearing in the Top 5 for all of them continue to be Adelaide, GWS, and Sydney. Geelong are close, however, with MoSSBODS and ChiPS ranking them 6th, as are Richmond, who are denied only by MARS' ranking them 7th.

Sydney continues to be ranked multiple places higher by all four Systems compared to their competition ladder ranking of 5th.

The largest disparities in the rankings across the four Systems are now for:

  • Port Adelaide (ranked 3rd on MARS and 8th on MoSSBODS)
  • Melbourne (ranked 8th on ChiPS and MARS, and 13th on MoSSBODS)
  • West Coast (ranked 6th on MARS and 13th on MoSHBODS)
  • the Western Bulldogs (ranked 5th on MoSSBODS and 12th on ChiPS)
  • Essendon (ranked 8th on MoSHBODS and 13th on MARS)

No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the Systems.