Matter of Stats

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2017 - Round 9 Results - Simple Success

This week it was the turn of the RSMP Head-to-Head Tipsters to outperform the field, the pair recording the only 6 from 9 performances, which sees them now sitting one tip clear at the top of the Leaderboard on 51 from 80 (64%).

Amongst the remainder, 5 from 9 was the best score, that recorded by MoSHBODS_Marg, C_Marg, and Home Sweet Home. Only four favourites were successful, and the all-Tipster average was 4.7 from 9.

The two RSMP forecasters in their Margin Predictor form also performed quite well this week, though not as well as the MoS twins, which retained 1st and 2nd place on the Leaderboard after recording the best and second-best mean absolute errors (MAEs) for the round.

MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg weren't the only Predictors retaining their ranking on the Leaderboard this week. In fact, every Predictor did exactly that too.

The all-Predictor mean absolute error (MAE) for the round was 33.1 points per game per Predictor, with all the Predictors barring MoSHBODS_Marg (30.9) and C_Marg (35.7) registering MAEs in the 32.2 to 33.9 points per game range.

Probability scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors also fell generally in a narrow, positive range, the highest scores recorded by MoSSBODS_Prob and MoSHBODS_Prob, and the lowest score by C_Prob.

That left MoSHBODS_Prob in top spot, and C_Prob in last.

WAGERS

It was another week of quite accretion, the Overall Portfolio increasing by 2c thanks to a 4.6c gain by the Head-to-Head Fund, a 1.7c gain by the Line Fund, and a 1c gain by the Over/Under Fund. 

Those small gains have left the Head-to-Head Fund up now by over 35% on the season, the Line Fund up by over 20%, and the Over/Under Fund up by just under 4%. Once we weight those, that implies that the Overall Portfolio is up by almost 17% across the nine rounds.