Matter of Stats

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2017 - Round 8 : Overs/Unders Update

MoSSBODS and both the TAB and Centrebet bookmakers think we'll see over 200 points in one game this weekend. MoSHBODS thinks we'll see it in two.

The bookies and MoSHBODS all have the Crows v Dees game on their list, however short it is, but MoSHBODS thinks the Hawks v Lions game should be on there as well. MoSSBODS.agrees with MoSHBODS on the Hawks v Lions game, but not the Crows v Dees game, which it expects to fall about 3 points short of 200.

All four forecasters expect the same six teams to score more than 100 points this week (Hawthorn, St Kilda, GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, and Port Adelaide), which would make it 6 weeks out of 8 in which at least that many teams have cracked the ton. The only rounds where we've seen fewer are Round 7 (five teams) and Round 3 (four teams).

In terms of low scoring, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have Carlton as the lowest-scoring team of the round and the Tigers v Dockers game as producing the lowest total, while the two bookmakers have Collingwood as low-scoring team and the Eagles v Dogs as the low-scoring game.

MoSSBODS' opinions differ most in comparison to the Centrebet bookmaker's this week, differing sufficiently in six of the games for the Over/Under Fund to have ventured wagers.

Those six include four unders bets and two overs bets, making it now 20 unders bets that the Fund has made this season, and 16 overs bets. Overs bets have fared slightly better so far with 8 of the 14 yielding profit compared to 8 of the 16 unders bets.

Last week, MoSHBODS had by far the best of it in terms of scoring forecasts, producing the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) for Game Margins, Home team scores, and Totals.

The TAB bookmaker recorded the lowest MAE for Away team scores, though all four forecasters had MAEs of about 10 to 11 points per game for those scores.

So far this season:

  • MoSSBODS has the best MAE for Game Margins (30.5 points per game)
  • MoSHBODS has the best MAE for Away team scores (18.8 points per game)
  • The TAB bookmaker has the best MAE for Totals (22.2 points per game)
  • The Centrebet bookmaker has the best MAE for Home team scores (19.6 points per game)