Matter of Stats

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2016 - Round 19 Results - Less Bad

Football teams, at this time of the year, can be cagey about the form they're in, which is what I'm hoping is also true of the MoS Funds. Together this week they managed to lose another 1.1% of the original Overall Portfolio Fund, the Head-to-Head Fund shedding 0.9c on a 2 from 4 performance, the Line Fund shedding 1.5c on a 2 from 5 performance, and the Overs/Unders Fund shedding 0.6c on a 3 from 6 performance.

That leaves the Overall Portfolio, having lost money the past four weeks, up by just 6.7c on the season.

Fortunately, we know that lines of code can't tank ...

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

One of the bright spots of the weekend was something of a return to form of MoSSBODS, which this week in the form of MoSSBODS_Marg was the only MoS Head-to-Head Tipster to correctly predict the winner of all nine contests.

As impressive as that result was, the brilliance was somewhat diminished by the fact that the entire MoS Head-to-Head Tipster base averaged 8 from 9.

Those results leave BKB now leading MoSSBODS_Marg by just a single tip on 122 from 162 (75%). Every so often, in my passing disappointment, I need to remind myself that MoSSBODS (and ChiPS) use no bookmaker or player information at all. I should be a little kinder to them ...

And, speaking of forgiveness, C_Marg stumbled a little again this week, returning a league-worst mean absolute error (MAE) of just over 34 points per game, compared to an all-Predictor average of 31.7 points per game. That dropped it back into 4th place, which is equal to the ranking it had after Round 8, and better only than the ranking it held after Round 1. It trails Bookie_LPSO though by only 50 points.

The round's best MAE belonged to Bookie_3, but this result was insufficiently superior to move Bookie_3 up the ladder from 4th-last. At the other end of that ladder, Bookie_LPSO's 30.5 points per game MAE was good enough to leave it in 1st place and now over 7 goals ahead of RSMP_Simple, which this week moved into 2nd place.

All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors returned strongly positive probability scores for the weekend, the best coming from Bookie_LPSO, which remains atop the ladder, and the worst coming from C_Prob, which remains in 4th place.