Matter of Stats

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2016 - Round 15 Results - Even Better

A perfect set of wagering results this week, with the lone head-to-head and line bets on Port Adelaide proving successful, and the Overs/Unders Fund guessing correctly in the five other games.

That meant increases of a little under 1c in the value of the Head-to-Head and Line Funds, a 9c lift in the value of the Overs/Unders Fund, and a 2.5c increase in the price of the Overall Portfolio. That Portfolio now stands 21c up on the season, which is only 1.3c below the season peak it reached after Round 4.

Two of the Funds have been quietly assembling some good numbers. The Line Fund now has a 41 and 17 record for the season, and a 7 and 0 record over the past three rounds, while the Overs/Unders Fund has gone 10 and 2 over those same three rounds. Even the Head-to-Head Fund appears to have shaken off its form slump over the past two rounds, racking up profits in each after a nine-week losing streak.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

All of the Head-to-Head Tipsters except Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder correctly tipped four the weekend's six games, which meant that there was little movement on the MoS Leaderboard. MoSSBODS_Marg still leads BKB by two tips and now has a 96 and 30 (76%) season record.

The all-Tipster average for the week was 3.8 from 6.

Margin prediction proved relatively easy again this week, the all-Predictor mean absolute error (MAE) coming in at 17.6 points per game. Best was ENS_Greedy's 15.3 points per game MAE, which was a result good enough to move it up into 4th place overall.

The top three Margin Predictors remain, in order, C_Marg, Bookie_LPSO and RSMP_Simple.

The Margin Predictors' line betting prowess has also continued, with all now having correctly predicted the line winner in between 53% and 60% of games so far this season.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, MoSSBODS_Prob had an especially good week, its probability score dragging it ahead of Bookie-OE and into 4th place for the season. C_Prob had the round's worst probability score, but remains on top of the Leaderboard.